The EUR/USD pair is hovering around the 50-day EMA at 1.1682, signalling weakening momentum. The 14-day RSI sits at 42.6, indicating a neutral-to-bearish bias. Initial resistance is found at the nine-day EMA of 1.1711.
After four consecutive days of losses, EUR/USD trades near 1.1680 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The daily chart shows the RSI falling below the 50 midline, pointing to weakening momentum and a bear-engaged market.
Decline In Upward Momentum
The pair remains below both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs, reflecting a decline in upward momentum. While the medium-term average is slightly rising, it is flattening; the short-term average’s descent retains a cap in the immediate term.
Holding below the nine-day EMA makes the EUR/USD pair susceptible, with sustained weakness potentially skewing risks downward. A close beneath the 50-day EMA at 1.1682 could further weaken medium-term momentum, threatening a test of the monthly low at 1.1589.
A rise above the nine-day EMA at 1.1711 would reignite momentum, possibly targeting the recent high of 1.1808. Continued advances might enhance short-term momentum, opening paths to 1.1918, the highest level since June 2021.
Looking back at the analysis from late December 2025, we saw the EUR/USD pair showing signs of weakening momentum. The price was struggling below the 1.1700 level with a bearish RSI reading. This perspective proved accurate as we moved into the new year.
Bears Continued Dominance
The bearish outlook was confirmed last week following the release of a strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for December 2025, which added 210,000 jobs against an expected 180,000. This data, combined with softer-than-expected Eurozone inflation figures, has pushed the pair decisively below the old 1.1589 support. We are now seeing the pair consolidate around the 1.1550 mark.
For options traders, this breakdown below key 2025 support levels suggests a shift in strategy. Buying put options to speculate on further declines is a primary consideration, especially with implied volatility picking up after the recent economic data releases. Establishing bear put spreads could also be an effective way to limit costs while maintaining a bearish position.
Those holding short futures contracts have been rewarded and should consider managing their positions actively. The key resistance levels from late 2025, particularly around the 1.1682 to 1.1711 zone, now represent significant barriers to any potential recovery. Any rally toward this area may be seen as an opportunity to initiate new short positions.
