Insights 
VT 
WTI Oil prices have risen above $58.00, driven by optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade agreement. US President Trump has also suggested a deal with India to reduce Russian Oil purchases.
Currently, WTI is trading around $58.40 per barrel, climbing nearly $2.5 from Monday’s lows. A meeting next week between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping is anticipated, with preliminary talks in Malaysia.
India and Russian Oil Imports
Trump has agreed to decrease import taxes on certain Indian goods in exchange for lowered Russian Oil imports. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 3 million barrel drop in Oil stocks for the week ending October 17.
Despite the rise, prices remain near the year’s low points, influenced by global economic concerns and potential increases in production. WTI Oil, known for its low gravity and sulphur content, is a high-quality benchmark for the Oil market.
Supply and demand, global growth, political factors, OPEC decisions, and the US Dollar value all influence WTI prices. Inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Agency further impact prices, with both agencies showing a high degree of accuracy in their reports.
OPEC, a 12-member group, often affects WTI prices through production decisions, with reductions typically raising prices and increases lowering them.
The Current Oil Market
We remember seeing WTI crude prices struggle below $60 back in 2019, driven by hopes of a US-China trade deal. Today, on October 22, 2025, the situation is quite different, with WTI holding firm around $84 per barrel. The primary driver now is less about trade wars and more about disciplined supply management from OPEC+ and ongoing geopolitical tensions in key regions.
While the old focus was on specific deals between leaders, today’s market is more concerned with broader economic signals. For instance, recent inflation data from the Eurozone came in slightly cooler than expected at 2.7%, easing fears of aggressive rate hikes that could slow down economic activity and curb fuel demand. This contrasts with the 2019 environment, which was dominated by tariff negotiations and singular political announcements.
The latest inventory data also paints a more complex picture than the straightforward drawdowns we saw supporting prices back then. Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a surprise build in crude stocks of 2.1 million barrels, against expectations of a small decline. This suggests that despite production cuts, underlying demand may not be as robust as the high price suggests, creating potential downside risk.
Given this inventory build and the elevated price, traders should consider hedging strategies against a potential price drop. Buying put options with a strike price around $80 could offer protection if persistent demand concerns begin to outweigh the supportive OPEC+ narrative. This allows for participation in further upside while capping losses if the market turns.
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the preliminary manufacturing and services PMI data from the U.S. and Europe due next week. Any sign of a significant economic slowdown could quickly shift market sentiment and challenge the current price levels. Therefore, remaining nimble and watching these key economic indicators will be crucial over the next few weeks.
