Insights 
VT 
The United States API weekly crude oil stock decreased from -2.98 million to -4 million as of October 24. This indicates a further drawdown in crude oil inventories compared to the previous figures.
Additional developments in the market include movements in global currencies and commodities. The Australian dollar saw gains following updates to its Consumer Price Index data, while WTI crude oil prices edged lower, nearing $60.00, due to OPEC+ output plans, although specifics on these plans are not provided.
Financial Institutions Updates
Elsewhere, several statements from financial institutions were noted. The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0843, slightly lower than the previous 7.0856, while Australia’s CPI inflation increased to 1.3% for Q3. Discussions from US Treasury’s Bessent and RBNZ’s Richardson also featured, mentioning interest rates and credit conditions.
Regarding editorial insights, various FX and commodity trends were mentioned without imparting specific investment advice. This includes minor changes in the EUR/USD and predictions about potential shifts in the market due to US-China trade dynamics. Additionally, there are mentions of several brokerage guides expected for 2025, aimed at various trading preferences and geographical regions.
The reported drop in US crude oil inventories is a significant bullish signal for us. A drawdown of 4 million barrels is larger than the previous week, suggesting demand is outpacing supply more than anticipated. This points towards potential upward pressure on oil prices in the near term.
We should now watch for the official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data to confirm this trend, as the API report is a preliminary indicator. Looking back, we saw similar draws in the autumn of 2023 and 2024, which often preceded a seasonal price increase. With WTI prices having recently dipped below $82 a barrel earlier this month, this drawdown could mark a key turning point for the market.
OPEC Production Cuts Justification
This inventory data gives OPEC+ more justification to maintain its current production cuts at its upcoming meeting. The cartel has consistently aimed to support prices above the $80 mark, a level we’ve tested recently. Any signal that they will hold firm on output quotas will likely add strength to the oil market through the end of the year.
Seasonality is also on our side as we head into November 2025. The onset of winter in the Northern Hemisphere typically boosts demand for heating oil, a key refined product from crude. Historical data from the past five years shows an average 3% increase in WTI prices between late October and early December, driven by this winter demand.
The broader economic picture, with Australian inflation coming in hotter than expected, suggests global energy demand remains robust. While this could mean central banks keep interest rates higher for longer, the immediate effect is a signal of a resilient economy that consumes more energy. This complicates the picture but reinforces the short-term demand story.
In the coming weeks, we should consider positioning for a potential rise in crude prices. Buying call options on WTI or Brent futures expiring in December could capture upside from both seasonal demand and the next OPEC+ meeting. Selling out-of-the-money put options could also be a viable strategy to collect premium while betting that prices have found a floor.
