The US Energy Information Administration reported a change in crude oil stocks for June 13. It found an actual decline of 11.473 million barrels, compared to an anticipated drop of 2.3 million barrels.

AUD/USD experienced a rebound after an earlier pullback, rising above the 0.6500 level despite strength in the US dollar. A focus is now on the Australian jobs report, with expectations set for the announcement.

US Dollar and the EURUSD Pair

The EUR/USD pair steadied below 1.1500 following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Comments from President Trump provided support to the US Dollar, inhibiting progress for the Euro.

Gold prices fell below $3,400 per troy ounce responding to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. Chair Powell’s statements following the meeting perhaps influenced this decline.

Australia anticipates the release of its employment report. It is expected to show 25,000 new jobs created with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank remains focused on monetary aggregates. This approach underscores the continued importance of quantitative theories.

Crude Oil Inventories and Market Reactions

The unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories—more than five times what surveys had pointed towards—caught many by surprise and tips the balance towards tighter supply assumptions, at least in the near term. Such a figure tends to fuel bullish sentiment in energy-linked assets, although longer-term positioning depends still on demand-side signals and output adjustments from major producers. For us, this introduces a clear challenge to pairs that trade sensitively with energy prices, often shaking assumptions about direction when paired with rate expectations.

With the Australian dollar bouncing back above 0.6500, reclaiming ground in the face of broad dollar support, the attention shifts squarely to domestic data. An improved reading in the upcoming employment release could reinforce positive yield differentials and lend further support to the currency. It’s the kind of setup where validation through numbers—job growth and steady unemployment—could shift the range higher, but only if wage pressures or participation suggest underlying strength. We’re not just eyeing the headline; the internals might matter even more here.

The Euro, on the other hand, finds itself stalling beneath the 1.1500 barrier. That might not seem dramatic by itself, but the context creates constraints. The Federal Reserve holding rates steady doesn’t help Euro optimists, especially when Powell follows such decisions with tone that markets read as leaning more towards tightening than easing. Combine this with verbal support to the greenback from the White House and it leaves the Euro lacking catalysts. ECB’s current focus doesn’t immediately counteract that; targeting monetary aggregates can feel abstract when compared with U.S. rate policy’s tangible sway on flows.

Gold has been reacting sharply, slipping back under the $3,400 per ounce mark. The metal’s softness reflects how sensitive it remains to interest rate expectations. Powell’s words, though not backed by action, re-priced risk across markets. For any bullish stance to return on gold, yields or inflation sentiment would need to move firmly in its favour. Right now, neither seem set to flip meaningfully.

In Europe, monetary theory still finds a seat in decision-making, with the central bank highlighting quantity-based frameworks. The reliance on monetary aggregates suggests a long-view approach to inflation management, though traders don’t always reward patience. Market participants tend to seek clarity on timing, while the ECB’s choices imply structure over signal. It’s a stance that can limit immediate responses, but shouldn’t be misread as passive.

We need to lean into the data points—not merely react but link them with the broader reaction function of each bank. What seems like an oversized oil draw can swing inflation expectations. A soft job number in Australia might look mild, but reviewed against the Reserve Bank’s commentary, it could reshape futures pricing. Dollar strength is no longer just about rates—it’s a question of narrative and how aggressively others want to counter it, or if they do at all.

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