Insights 
VT 
WTI Trading Outlook
Technically, WTI remains in a bearish range below $60-$62, with major resistance encountered there. Momentum indicators, such as the RSI and MACD, show early signs of stabilisation despite the persistence of bearish sentiment.
The RSI has rebounded from oversold levels to about 41, and the MACD histogram is narrowing, suggesting a potential bullish crossover if buying pressure continues. Immediate support levels are noted at $57.00 and $55.00.
WTI is a “light, sweet” crude with low gravity and sulfur content, sourced in the US. Inventory data heavily influences its price; a drop indicates higher demand, while increased inventories point to a supply surge. OPEC decisions on production quotas also crucially affect WTI prices.
Given the surprise inventory draw, we are seeing a short-term rebound in WTI after it touched a five-month low near $56 earlier this week. This bounce is also getting help from a weaker U.S. Dollar, which is reacting to inflation data released last week showing the annual CPI rate cooling to 2.8%. However, we should view this recovery with caution as the broader trend remains bearish.
Future Implications
The fundamental picture still points to weakness in the coming weeks and into early 2026. Recent manufacturing PMI data from China and the Eurozone has dipped below 50, signaling economic contraction and dampening the outlook for global energy demand. This aligns with projections from the International Energy Agency that global supply will continue to outpace consumption.
On the supply side, there is little to suggest a major shift that would support prices. OPEC+ ministers are not scheduled to meet until early December, and we see no indication they will deepen production cuts beyond the quotas established earlier in 2025. This persistent oversupply reinforces the heavy technical resistance we see in the $60-$62 per barrel range.
For options traders, this setup suggests selling premium could be a prudent strategy. We believe that selling call spreads with a short strike price safely above the $62 resistance level could capitalize on the expected price ceiling and time decay. This approach allows us to profit if the price moves sideways or drifts lower, as the underlying bearish trend suggests it might.
Those trading futures contracts might see this current bounce towards $60 as an opportunity to establish short positions. We have seen similar patterns in late 2024 where relief rallies failed at key technical levels before resuming a downtrend. A disciplined stop-loss order placed just above the $62-$63 zone would be critical to manage risk if the market structure unexpectedly shifts.
While momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD are showing early signs of stabilizing, we need to see a decisive price move above the cluster of moving averages to confirm any real change in trend. Until then, this appears to be a classic relief rally within a larger downtrend. The key is to watch if buying pressure can sustain itself as prices approach that formidable $60-$62 resistance wall.
