Insights 
VT 
Crude oil declined on Friday after a disappointing US NFP report, with concerns about economic growth affecting the market. Despite the negative reaction, the data was not as weak as it seemed, but the market was positioned for a stronger report, leading to a quick reversal.
OPEC+ decided to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, completing previous output cuts. The market anticipated this decision, resulting in minimal impact on oil prices.
Economic Data Focus
Attention is now on economic data and the Federal Reserve, as they will affect future growth forecasts. The tariff conversation has settled within a 10-20% range, with most impacts already priced in.
Growth and inflation expectations lean upwards, as the Fed maintains an easing stance, supporting the market within a $60-$80 price range. Crude oil is currently trading between the 64.00 support zone and the 72.00 resistance.
On a 4-hour chart, crude oil briefly advanced above the 69.00 level before retreating. Buyers aim to enter near support, while sellers focus on resistance levels. In the 1-hour chart, a swing high at 67.80 may act as resistance, with sellers targeting it for a potential decline.
US ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims figures are expected this week.
Market Sensitivity
Based on the market’s reaction last Friday, we see that crude oil is sensitive to signs of economic slowing. The drop following the August 1st Non-Farm Payroll report, which came in at +155,000 against an expected +180,000, showed how quickly bullish positions can be unwound. This slight miss in job creation has put growth concerns back at the forefront for the coming weeks.
The OPEC+ decision over the weekend to increase September production by 547,000 barrels per day was no surprise. This move, which finalizes the reversal of the voluntary cuts from 2023, was fully anticipated and priced in by the market months ago. Consequently, we should not expect any significant price reaction to this supply-side news going forward.
With supply adjustments now clear and the trade tariff situation seemingly resolved within a 10-20% range, our focus must shift. The primary drivers for oil prices will be incoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The Fed’s forward guidance from its July 2025 meeting, which hinted at a pause after holding rates at 4.75%, continues to suggest an easing bias.
This outlook should provide a floor for prices, as the prospect of future rate cuts supports economic growth expectations. However, conviction is not strong enough for a major breakout, so we anticipate the market will remain contained. We should prepare for crude oil to trade within a broad range between $60 and $80 for the foreseeable future.
For derivative traders with a bullish view, the strategy should be to patiently wait for prices to approach the strong support zone around $64.00. This area offers a clear entry point for buying call options or selling cash-secured puts with a defined risk below that level. The initial target for such a trade would be a move back towards the $72.00 resistance.
Traders with a bearish bias should see resistance levels as their opportunity to act. The recent swing high around $67.80 offers a short-term level to sell against, perhaps by purchasing puts or establishing bear call spreads. A more significant bearish signal would be a confirmed break below the $64.00 support, which would open the door for a larger move down towards $55.00.
This week’s data will provide the next test for this range-bound thesis. We will be closely watching the US ISM Services PMI tomorrow, as a strong reading could push oil toward resistance. On Thursday, the latest US Jobless Claims figures will give us another update on the health of the labor market and its implications for demand.
