Insights 
VT 
Crude oil futures are closing at $64.80, an increase of $1.14 or 1.79%. The day’s high was $65.10, with a low of $63.53.
On the daily chart, the price returned above the 100-day moving average at $64.29, offering a short-term advantage to buyers. The market is currently testing a swing area between $63.61 and $65.27. A sustained move above this region would refocus attention on the 200-day moving average at $67.46, with interim resistance near $67.00.
Volatile Trading Patterns
The pair has experienced volatile trading around both the 100- and 200-day moving averages in recent years, with repeated fluctuations in both directions. Overall, both highs and lows are decreasing, indicating a downward tendency, despite occasional upward spikes.
For now, if the price remains above the 100-day average, the short-term bias favours buyers, keeping upward targets in sight.
With crude oil futures moving back above the 100-day moving average, we see a short-term bullish signal. This indicates that buyers have the upper hand for now, putting the resistance level near $65.27 into focus. A clean break above this area could trigger a bigger move toward the $67 mark.
This upward pressure is likely supported by the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, which showed an unexpected draw of 2.8 million barrels from U.S. commercial crude inventories last week. That report for the week ending August 22nd, 2025, defied forecasts of a slight build, suggesting demand remains robust. This fundamental backdrop strengthens the case for the current technical breakout.
Trading Strategies and Market Concerns
For those looking to trade this upside momentum, buying call options with a strike price of $67 could be a viable strategy for the coming weeks. This allows traders to profit from a continued rally toward the 200-day moving average at $67.46. Using options can also help define and limit potential losses if the price suddenly reverses course.
However, we must remain cautious, as the longer-term trend still shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Looking back to the price action in the second quarter of 2025, we saw similar rallies fail as they approached the 200-day moving average. The market has been choppy, and this could be another short-lived spike in a broader downtrend.
Adding to this concern is the seasonal shift, as the peak summer driving season in the Northern Hemisphere is now ending, which typically leads to a decline in gasoline consumption. Simultaneously, recent weak industrial production figures from the Eurozone have renewed worries about a global economic slowdown, which could dampen future oil demand. This macroeconomic headwind could easily halt the current rally.
