Insights 
VT 
Crude oil futures closed at $65.29, marking an increase of $0.71 or 1.10%. The highest price during the session was $65.39, while the lowest was $64.22, indicating a rebound in market sentiment.
On the daily chart, the price movement was notable as it climbed above the 50% retracement level of $64.71. Since April, oil consistently closed below this level. Regaining this position supports a short-term rise.
Next Potential Resistance
The next resistance level is the 100-day moving average at $66.28, which has not been surpassed since April 2nd. Breaking through this barrier could lead to further gains.
Failure to maintain a price above the $64.71 support could indicate that the breakout has not held, which might lead to increased selling. If this support fails, attention moves to swing lows between $64.14 and $63.57, serving as subsequent targets.
We’ve seen a sharp turn in sentiment around crude, with futures poking above that well-watched retracement level at $64.71. This is a cleaner technical sign than most: it tells us that the bears, who’ve dominated since April, are losing their grip—at least for now. The fact that price not only crossed but closed above that marker matters because we haven’t seen a close over it for weeks. That signals renewed strength.
More interestingly, the move occurred with a session high just a few ticks under the 100-day moving average at $66.28. This line isn’t just some arbitrary hurdle—it’s been untouched since early April, a clear marker that institutions and quants alike may be eyeing closely. If price does rally through and settles above it over successive days, it opens the way to test higher congestion zones from March. And in this business, stale levels from that kind of window still pack a punch.
Stability Concerns
However, stability above $64.71 is anything but guaranteed. It’s now acting like a hinge point. We’re watching it closely over the next two to three sessions. Should prices drop back beneath it, especially on increasing volume, it strongly suggests that the upside attempt fell flat. There would likely be follow-through selling, with fallbacks towards $64.14 and then $63.57—the last swing lows of note. Because these levels held last time, they might offer some response, but that’s assuming buyers haven’t been entirely shaken off.
Momentum-wise, the bounce looks relatively contained. There’s been no wide-range price bar or surge in open interest yet. So from a tactical view, further price confirmation is needed. It’s not the time to force a directional bias. Instead, we prepare for either direction: leaning modestly bullish while prices hold the retracement, but ready to shift if those nearby support levels crack.
From here, we plan our exposure incrementally. If we hold above $64.71 into Wednesday, longer-term trend systems may start adding to length, with stops cut tight under $64. Support failures motivate trimming or reversing short-dated positions, especially if volume expands on the way down. Each move has to be guided not just by price, but the broader reaction around these technical pivots.
Keep in mind how quiet the volatility signals remain. That tends to precede sudden moves. We know from experience that crude rarely sits still for long when approaching a moving average it hasn’t breached in months. The lean should be tactical, not thematic—no large bets, but rather measured trades backed by price persistence and intraday conviction.
