Insights 
VT 
The price of Copper has surged to about $10,800 per ton, the highest since May of last year. This increase echoes the previous year’s rise, which was attributed to fears over mining disruptions, particularly after the closure of a major mine in Panama.
These earlier concerns didn’t lead to actual production issues, as Chinese Copper smelters kept a steady output despite talks of capacity limits. As a result, the heightened prices were eventually corrected in the second half of the year. Given these circumstances, current price levels might not reflect actual market conditions.
For similar reasons, doubts arise about the current Copper price sustainability. The FXStreet Insights Team has collated observations from experts and analysts, indicating skepticism about the present market prices. The content serves informational purposes, emphasising the importance of conducting thorough research for investment decisions.
We are seeing a familiar pattern in the copper market, with prices pushing near $10,800 per ton, mirroring the surge from May 2024. Just as we were skeptical then, there are reasons to be cautious now about these levels being justified by fundamentals. The risk of a repeat price correction, like the one we saw in the second half of 2024, seems elevated.
Recent data shows that combined LME and SHFE copper inventories have actually climbed by 8% over the last month to 245,000 tonnes, which is contrary to what one would expect in a tight market. This build-up suggests that physical demand is not keeping pace with the price rally. The situation is unlike early 2024 when inventories were drawing down more consistently.
Furthermore, smelter output from China remains robust, with the latest figures from September 2025 showing a year-over-year production increase of 4.5%. Despite ongoing discussions about potential coordinated cuts, actual output has not been curtailed. This strong production momentum echoes the scenario from 2024, where talk of cuts did not translate into action.
Looking at market positioning, the latest Commitment of Traders report shows speculative net-long positions are at a 20-month high. This indicates the current rally is heavily fueled by financial flows rather than industrial buyers. Such crowded trades are often vulnerable to sharp reversals once the narrative shifts.
For derivative traders, this suggests that bearish positions could be considered in the coming weeks. Buying put options with November or December 2025 expiries would offer a defined-risk way to position for a potential pullback towards the $9,500 level. Alternatively, selling out-of-the-money call options or establishing bear call spreads could capitalize on decaying volatility if the price stalls.
