Insights 
VT 
Consumer confidence in New Zealand, as measured by the ANZ-Roy Morgan index, has decreased from 94.6 to 92.4 in September.
Zcash, a privacy-focused cryptocurrency, has maintained a bullish trajectory, trading around $360, despite fluctuating market conditions.
Meeting Results
The meeting between Trump and Xi had no surprises, with the US achieving resumed soybean exports and China gaining reduced tariffs on Fentanyl.
Gold prices experienced a decline after nearing the $4,050 mark, but safe-haven demand continues to provide some support.
The GBP/USD pair continues to decrease, nearing the 1.3100 level, falling over 2% against the US Dollar in October.
The EUR/USD has seen some buying interest, trading around 1.1575, though lacking strong upward momentum.
Bitcoin Whitepaper Anniversary
The Bitcoin whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto was released 17 years ago, marking the inception of a $4 trillion cryptocurrency market.
Japan remains vigilant towards Forex movements with a heightened sense of urgency.
China’s manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49 in October, with the non-manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 50.1.
The AUD/USD hovers around 0.6550 following China’s PMI data. The NZD/USD is near a one-week low at about 0.5735.
The EUR/USD holds 1.1550-40 support as the USD consolidates gains post-FOMC, with limited follow-through.
We are seeing clear signs of a slowdown in China, with the manufacturing PMI dropping into contraction at 49. This is directly impacting commodity currencies, pushing the Aussie and Kiwi dollars to new lows. Given New Zealand’s own dip in consumer confidence, we should consider using options to bet against further strength in NZD/USD and AUD/USD.
The US dollar remains the dominant force, with the market still digesting the recent hawkish tone from the FOMC. Looking back at the tightening cycle of 2022-2023, we saw how persistent Fed resolve can drive significant dollar rallies. With GBP/USD hitting six-month lows below 1.3120 and EUR/USD struggling at 1.1550, selling futures on these pairs seems like a prudent strategy.
There is a major disconnect between the supposed good news of a US-China trade framework and the price of gold, which was rejected near an all-time high of $4,050. This indicates deep-seated fear in the market, likely over persistent global inflation, which has been a recurring theme since the post-pandemic era. This environment is ideal for volatility plays, such as buying straddles on gold, to profit whether fear escalates or subsides suddenly.
The weakness in the British pound is particularly notable, extending its decline for the month. The UK economy is showing signs of stagflation, similar to the struggles we saw back in 2023 when inflation hit over 6% while growth stalled. This fundamental weakness suggests that shorting the pound against the dollar has more room to run in the coming weeks.
While major currency and commodity markets are flashing warning signs, parts of the crypto market show isolated strength. Zcash is defying the broader risk-off mood, indicating that traders are looking for specific narratives rather than making broad bets on the sector. As Bitcoin, which turned 17 years old today, consolidates its massive gains, we should look for derivative opportunities in specific altcoins that are showing relative strength.
