Insights 
VT 
Japan’s construction orders decreased by 10.1% in October, a decline from the previous increase of 34.7%. This marks a substantial drop, indicating challenges in the construction sector for that month.
In other economic data, Canada’s GDP is predicted to grow in the third quarter after experiencing a contraction in the previous quarter. In Germany, retail sales saw an increase of 0.9% year-on-year in October, slightly up from the prior figure of 0.8%.
The Yen’s Movement
The Japanese yen continues its consolidative movement against the US dollar, with limited downside risks. Gold has stayed relatively stable below $4,200, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December boosting its weekly gains.
Zcash, a privacy coin, faces potential challenges with a 30% drop risk due to rising retail volume in the market. The privacy coin has experienced over a 17% loss during the week, with stagnant demand in shielded pools.
US financial markets observed a half-day operation on Black Friday, following Thanksgiving, allowing investors to ponder the UK budget’s effects and stock market trends. Various insights are offered on brokers for 2025, guiding choices for traders in different sectors.
Japan’s Economic Indicators
The sudden drop in Japan’s construction orders is a major red flag for the coming weeks. A fall to -10.1% year-over-year, especially after a massive 34.7% gain the previous month, signals a sharp contraction in a key economic sector. We should view this as a lead indicator for a broader slowdown in Japan.
This weak data reinforces the case for continued yen weakness, as the Bank of Japan will have no reason to tighten its policy, a stance it has held since the high inflation period of 2023-2024. Therefore, we see an opportunity in using derivatives to short the yen against the U.S. dollar. Buying call options on USD/JPY could offer significant upside if this economic weakness persists into the new year.
In the United States, bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are holding firm, which is propping up assets like gold. This anticipated easing comes as recent inflation data has finally shown consistent cooling, with the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, tracking at 2.5% for the last quarter. For traders, this makes long positions in gold futures or call options on gold ETFs attractive, especially as the metal consolidates below the $4,200 mark.
The bearish sentiment on WTI crude oil reflects growing concerns about a global slowdown, directly linked to weak data from major economies like Japan and Germany. Global oil demand growth has already slowed to around 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, down significantly from the post-pandemic rebound years. This environment suggests that buying put options on major oil producers or energy ETFs could serve as a valuable hedge.
Meanwhile, Europe is showing its own signs of strain, with German retail sales slowing and the EUR/USD struggling below 1.1600. The European Central Bank is in a difficult position, facing both stubborn inflation and a stagnating economy. We believe this will lead to underperformance in European equities, making short positions on the DAX index via futures a viable strategy.
