Russia’s largest Palladium producer predicts a supply deficit for Platinum in 2025, while Palladium remains balanced. The company forecasts a Platinum supply deficit of 300,000 ounces this year, excluding investment demand. Including investment demand, the deficit rises to 400,000 ounces.
For Palladium, a balanced market is expected without investment demand, with a deficit of 200,000 ounces when including it. Forecasts for the next year show a roughly similar balance for Platinum and a Palladium deficit of 100,000 ounces. These contrasts with the World Platinum Investment Council’s November report.
Platinum Market Predictions
The Council anticipated that the Platinum market will be nearly balanced next year, factoring in investment demand. Excluding investor demand, the WPIC suggests the Platinum market would be oversupplied by approximately 380,000 ounces, which would not warrant a price increase.
FXStreet Insights Team compiles observations from renowned experts, including commercial notes and insights from both internal and external analysts. This content encompasses varied perspectives within the market, reflecting differing views and predictions on future supplies and demands.
We are currently seeing a significant disagreement on the future of the Platinum market. A major Russian producer expects a supply deficit of 400,000 ounces for 2025, while the World Platinum Investment Council’s latest forecast points to a nearly balanced market. This type of divergence between a key producer and a research council often creates volatility and trading opportunities.
Recent data seems to support the deficit narrative, making a bullish stance on Platinum more credible. Global auto sales figures released last week for November 2025 showed a surprising 4.5% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for hybrid vehicles which are heavy users of platinum in their catalytic converters. This suggests industrial demand is healthier than the WPIC may have projected.
Investment Strategies for Platinum and Palladium
On the supply side, we have seen persistent reports of energy curtailments in South Africa throughout this final quarter of 2025. These issues, which we also saw cause production shortfalls back in 2022 and 2023, historically constrain mining output and lend weight to forecasts of a tighter market. This makes the producer’s deficit prediction seem more realistic for the weeks ahead.
For derivative traders, this points toward establishing long positions in Platinum heading into the new year. Considering call options on Platinum futures could offer a way to capitalize on a potential price increase while managing downside risk. The market has already seen Platinum prices climb 7% since early November 2025, suggesting this sentiment is starting to build.
The outlook for Palladium is notably different, with forecasts showing a more balanced market. A deficit of only 100,000 to 200,000 ounces is not a strong catalyst for a major price move. This suggests that strategies like selling options to collect premium might be more suitable for Palladium in the short term.
Given these diverging outlooks, a pairs trade could be an effective strategy over the coming weeks. We could consider taking a long position in Platinum against a short position in Palladium. This would allow us to profit from Platinum’s potentially stronger fundamentals relative to Palladium, regardless of the direction of the wider precious metals complex.
