Insights 
VT 
The EUR/USD has maintained its position this week, attributed mainly to a slightly weaker dollar. The German ZEW expectations index for November did not provide encouraging results, yet the eurozone’s aggregate ZEW figure increased, raising questions about Germany’s role as a potential outlier.
ECB Event Focus
No significant eurozone data is expected today; attention will be on ECB speakers, especially Isabel Schnabel at 1230 CET discussing “Europe Reimagined: The Path to Empowerment”. This suggests a focus on reducing fragmentation within the eurozone and urging policy reforms.
The current trading level of EUR/USD is closer to 1.16 than 1.15. However, a further increase beyond 1.16 will likely depend on softer US data.
We are holding onto gains around the 1.1600 level in EUR/USD, but this feels more like a story of dollar weakness than any real strength in the euro. Upcoming price action will depend heavily on whether fresh US economic data can confirm this softening trend. If it does, a sustained break higher is possible.
The narrative for a weaker dollar is building, especially after the latest US inflation and jobs figures for October 2025. The headline CPI came in slightly below expectations at 3.1%, and the non-farm payrolls report showed job creation slowing to 140,000, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.0%. This data gives the Federal Reserve more reason to consider a pause or even a dovish pivot, which traders should watch closely.
Eurozone Concerns
On the other side of the pair, the euro is struggling to find its own momentum. The weak German ZEW survey from yesterday is concerning, and it reflects the broader industrial slowdown seen in the country’s recent Q3 2025 GDP, which showed a meager 0.1% growth. While overall eurozone data is slightly better, this internal weakness is likely to keep the European Central Bank cautious and cap the euro’s upside potential.
For derivative traders, this environment suggests looking at limited-risk strategies that profit from a potential breakout. Buying call options with a strike price around 1.1650 or 1.1700 for the coming weeks offers a way to capitalize on further soft US data. This approach protects your downside if the US economy shows unexpected strength and the dollar rallies back.
We have seen this level act as a critical pivot point before, particularly when we look back at late 2021 before a major downtrend began. Back then, policy divergence between the Fed and ECB was the primary driver, and we are seeing echoes of that theme again today. A convincing break above 1.1600 would require a clear shift in that narrative, specifically signs of a more dovish Fed.
