In July 2025, China’s exports experienced a growth of 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the anticipated 5.4% increase and previous 5.8% rise. Imports also showed an improvement, increasing by 4.1% year-on-year, contrary to the expected 1.0% decline, showing an advance over the prior 1.1% growth.
The trade balance presented a surplus of 84.2 billion USD. This figure was lower than the expected 105 billion USD and the prior 114.8 billion USD. Exports to the United States decreased by 21.6% year-on-year in July, although trans shipments are challenging to account for correctly.
Year-To-Date Numbers
From January to July, the year-to-date numbers reflect a 6.1% year-on-year growth in exports and a 2.7% decrease in imports. The trade balance during this period was 683.5 billion USD. Exports to the US fell by 12.6% year-on-year, while imports from the US dropped 10.3% year-on-year.
Following the data release, the yuan remained relatively stable, with USD/CNH trading slightly higher at approximately 7.1840.
Given the stronger-than-expected July 2025 trade data from China, we see the most immediate opportunities in the commodities space. The surprise 4.1% jump in imports, against expectations of a decline, signals a genuine revival in domestic demand. This reinforces a bullish stance on industrial metals, suggesting call options on copper and iron ore futures could be profitable.
Looking at the specifics, we’ve already seen iron ore futures on the Dalian exchange firming up above $120 per tonne in late July 2025. This import data should act as a tailwind, especially as we have seen steel production margins improve recently. Likewise, copper inventories in both Shanghai and London Metal Exchange warehouses have been drawing down steadily since the second quarter of 2025, and this report validates that physical demand is robust.
Impact on Commodities and Currencies
The data also supports crude oil prices, which have been holding firm around $95 per barrel for Brent. China is the world’s largest oil importer, so a pickup in economic activity directly translates to higher energy consumption. This development complicates the supply picture, where OPEC+ has maintained its production discipline throughout the first half of the year.
For currency traders, the yuan’s muted reaction is the key takeaway. Despite strong data, the USD/CNH pair remains stubbornly high around 7.18, largely because the US Federal Reserve is still signaling a “higher for longer” interest rate policy. This suggests that for now, range-trading strategies on the yuan, such as selling straddles or strangles, are preferable to betting on a breakout.
This strength in China is a positive for global equities that depend on its market. We are seeing this reflected in Australian mining stocks, with the ASX 200 materials index gaining over the past week. Traders should also look at call options on European luxury and automotive names, as they are highly sensitive to Chinese consumer sentiment.
The continued weakness in direct exports to the US confirms the trade realignment we have witnessed over the past couple of years. While these numbers are poor, we know significant trade is being rerouted through countries like Vietnam and Mexico. This trend reinforces the strategy of looking for growth in those emerging markets rather than expecting a sudden rebound in direct US-China trade figures.
