Insights 
VT 
Chinese smelters are boosting their copper exports due to strong global market prices. This decision is impacting copper and zinc prices, leading to a recent decline.
In the first eight months of this year, Chinese exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 13% higher than last year. In contrast, zinc concentrate exports fell almost 20% compared to the previous year.
The last notable zinc exports occurred in 2022 when non-Chinese smelters reduced production in response to an energy price surge. These shifts illustrate changes in export patterns driven by market and production pressures.
Given the high world market prices, we see Chinese smelters increasing metal exports, which is putting pressure on copper. Data confirms this trend, with Chinese exports of unwrought copper and its products through August 2025 running 13% higher than in the same period last year. This is a logical response to China’s own slowing domestic demand, especially with new property starts still down more than 20% year-on-year.
For traders, this signals that the path of least resistance for copper is likely lower in the near term. With COMEX copper recently failing to hold above $4.40 per pound, establishing short positions or buying puts on any price rallies seems like a prudent strategy. We should be watching for a break below key support levels as this export trend is unlikely to reverse without a significant pickup in China’s domestic economy.
The situation for zinc is quite different and presents a potential pair trade opportunity. Exports of zinc concentrate from China are down nearly 20% compared to last year’s levels. This is a stark contrast to copper and suggests Chinese smelters are holding onto raw materials for their own processing.
We have to remember that the last time we saw major zinc exports was during the European energy price shock back in 2022, a situation that has since stabilized. With European smelters back online, the global market is not as reliant on Chinese finished zinc, which could keep a floor under prices as concentrate remains tight. Therefore, a strategy of being short copper relative to a neutral or long stance on zinc could be advantageous in the coming weeks.
