China’s gold imports climbed to 173 tonnes in June, the highest monthly total since March 2024, as a price pullback encouraged buying. That compared with 151 tonnes in May and 157 tonnes in April. The international gold price fell 7 percent in H1, while it dropped 10 percent in renminbi terms as the yuan strengthened. A new import licensing regime took effect on 1 June, encouraging importers to use existing quotas, and a persistent domestic premium meant sourcing from the international market was cheaper for banks and jewellery producers.
Wholesale demand improved during the month, with Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals up 36 percent month-on-month to 87 tonnes, though the jewellery sector remained weak. Over H1 2026, withdrawals totalled 598 tonnes, down 12 percent year-on-year and 27 percent below the 10-year average. Chinese gold ETFs saw a large June outflow, yet added 29 tonnes over H1, the second-strongest start to a year on record; assets under management edged up 1 percent to 277 tonnes, valued at ¥243 billion ($36 billion) at end-June.
Opportunities In Derivatives And Spread Trading
We believe derivative traders should position themselves for a gold price rebound in the coming weeks by targeting long futures and call options. The massive surge in Chinese gold imports to 173 tonnes in June shows that physical buyers are aggressively defending lower price levels. With international gold prices stabilizing near $2,320 an ounce after a 7 percent first-half dip, this strong physical floor limits the downside risk for derivative bulls.
We should also pay close attention to the persistent domestic gold premium in China, which creates excellent spread-trading opportunities. Traders can exploit this gap by going long on COMEX gold while utilizing short positions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Additionally, Chinese gold ETFs adding 29 tonnes in the first half of the year proves that institutional trust in paper gold derivatives remains incredibly strong.
Outlook And Short-Term Trading Strategies
As we enter August, we expect the combination of newly adjusted import quotas and a potential jewelry market recovery to push prices upward. Historically, when wholesale withdrawals jump like the 36 percent month-on-month surge to 87 tonnes we saw in June, a price rally often follows. We suggest buying call options with September expirations to capture this anticipated upward momentum.
