Insights 
VT 
The United States CFTC oil net positions have increased from 153.3K to 156K. This data reflects a change in the net positions for oil, indicating an adjustment in market sentiment or activity.
In currency markets, EUR/USD moved above 1.1550 following disappointing US employment data. Similarly, GBP/USD reversed a downward trend, trading above 1.3250 due to renewed USD weakness.
Gold Market Trends
Gold saw an increase to recent weekly highs at approximately $3,350. This shift occurred as US Treasury bond yields fell, influencing market perspectives on the Fed rate outlook after weak NFP data.
Cryptocurrency markets faced challenges following a bullish July. Bitcoin fell below $115,000 as the market eyed the $112,000 support amidst rising crypto liquidations.
In the euro area, economic resilience was observed, strengthened by the EU-US deal and German spending plans. However, risks of further cuts remain possible later this year or early next year, influenced by wage trends.
Based on the slight increase in CFTC oil net long positions, we see continued institutional belief in higher prices. This view is supported by the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) report from late July 2025, which showed a surprise crude inventory draw of 3.1 million barrels. We should consider this a bullish signal for the coming weeks, making long positions in WTI futures attractive.
Currency Market Opportunities
The broad weakness in the US dollar presents a clear opportunity in currency markets. This trend was triggered by the disappointing July 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed job growth of only 95,000 against an expected 180,000. We believe this gives us a window to favor long EUR/USD and GBP/USD positions, as the market pushes back expectations for any Federal Reserve tightening.
Gold’s rally to $3,350 is a direct consequence of the weak US jobs data, which sent the 10-year Treasury yield tumbling to 3.5%. Historically, looking back at similar environments in the late 2010s, such a drop in yields alongside a weaker dollar creates a strong tailwind for precious metals. We see further upside for gold and think buying call options targeting the $3,400 level is a sound strategy.
In the crypto space, we are seeing a necessary correction after July’s surge. The drop below $115,000 for Bitcoin has been driven by over $500 million in long position liquidations over the last 48 hours. We should remain cautious and wait for price to stabilize at the $112,000 support level before considering new long entries.
The euro area’s resilience, confirmed by a slight beat in the July 2025 German IFO Business Climate index, is creating short-term Euro strength. However, the European Central Bank’s lingering concern over wage growth means the risk of a rate cut later this year remains. We can trade the current strength but should be hedged against a potential reversal in the fourth quarter.
