Canada’s headline Consumer Price Index is expected to remain at 3% year-on-year in September, supported by higher petrol and furnace oil prices. Food inflation is seen moderating, which could help keep overall price growth steady even as energy costs firm. The commentary points to limited spillover from energy into most non-energy categories, while transport components are flagged as the area most exposed outside airfares.
Core Inflation Trends
Core CPI excluding food and energy is forecast to ease to 1.8% from 2.1% in August.
Broader Price Pressures
Diffusion indices that track the breadth of price pressures suggest consumer inflation remains relatively narrow, even as measures for industrial production prices indicate broader price increases at earlier stages of the supply chain. Any pass-through from those upstream gains to shop-shelf prices is described as a slower process with further distance to run.
