Since early October, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has mostly stayed between USD 60 and 65. It is likely to remain stable this week as factors affecting the price balance each other out. China’s crude oil imports are particularly significant, with recent data indicating robust activity.
Chinese oil demand this year is expected to be 100,000 barrels higher per year than last year. However, crude oil imports in the first ten months were 400,000 barrels per day higher than the previous year. It is anticipated that imports will stay high in November, contributing to building strategic reserves.
Potential Oversupply and Market Impact
New forecasts from energy agencies this week might put pressure on prices, pointing to a potential oversupply of oil next year. Last month, the EIA raised its oil price expectations due to sanctions on Russia and China’s increased stockpiling. Increased production and higher prices resulted in a slight upward revision for US production forecasts, but further adjustments remain uncertain.
It looks like Brent crude oil will continue to trade in a tight range, likely between $85 and $90 per barrel, as it has for much of the fourth quarter of 2025. Factors supporting higher prices and those pushing them down seem to be balancing each other out almost perfectly. For now, the most important numbers to watch will be China’s crude import data for November.
We expect China’s imports to remain very strong, which should keep a floor under prices in the near term. Recent customs data for November showed imports holding firm at over 11.4 million barrels per day, with a significant portion likely going into strategic reserves. High diesel crack spreads, which have been hovering around $28 a barrel, also give Chinese refiners a strong incentive to process more crude.
Forecasts and Production Trends
On the other hand, upcoming forecasts from the IEA and EIA are likely to weigh on sentiment for the year ahead. Looking back at 2024, supply was a constant concern, but non-OPEC+ production has since ramped up significantly. These new reports will almost certainly point to a market oversupply for 2026, capping any major price rallies.
The relentless growth in U.S. production is a key part of this oversupply picture. The EIA’s most recent weekly report showed U.S. output hitting a new record of 13.5 million barrels per day. This consistent growth adds considerable weight to the argument that any price spikes will be short-lived.
