BNY’s Geoff Yu said the dollar-hedging wave triggered by a dovish read of the July FOMC meeting appears to have faded, after what he described as a difficult August. Having been heavily held through Q2 and Q3 on the “U.S. exceptionalism” trade, the market response to the July decision drove a burst of hedging activity, but recent flow data point to early stabilisation and some renewed USD buying against the EUR, MXN and CAD.
He added that, while one day is not a trend, the past three weeks show limited appetite to add aggressively to dollar hedges, and the Fed’s willingness to keep hiking reduced the driver behind early-August dollar selling. USD holdings are still elevated yet trade-weighted positioning is historically light, which leaves room for the dollar to steady; however, without a wider policy gap versus peers, further upside would rely on stronger U.S. asset demand and renewed leadership in real rates. Tariffs aside, outperformance versus key trading partners’ currencies would also tighten conditions through pass-through, while CNY’s influence is said to be waning.
Opportunities for Tactical Long-Dollar Positions
We suggest derivative traders start unwinding their US dollar hedges as the selling pressure from the mid-summer Federal Reserve meeting has ended. With early signs of dollar buying returning against the euro, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar, the downward trend is losing momentum. We believe the coming weeks present a strong opportunity to build tactical long-dollar positions using options.
Our view is supported by recent positioning data, which shows that trade-weighted dollar holdings have dropped to their lightest levels since early 2024. This reduction in crowded long positions minimizes the risk of sudden sell-offs and sets a stable floor for the currency. As a result, the risk-reward ratio for buying the greenback has become highly favorable.
We recommend focusing on short EUR/USD and long USD/MXN derivative strategies to capture this shift. The Mexican peso has struggled in Q3 2026 due to local political uncertainty, while the Eurozone’s stagnant growth makes the euro vulnerable. Buying short-dated USD call options against these currencies allows us to limit downside risk while capturing quick upward moves.
Conditions for a Sustained Dollar Rally
However, for a sustained dollar rally to occur, we must see a renewed rise in U.S. real interest rates and stronger global demand for American assets. If the Fed maintains steady interest rates while inflation falls, rising real yields will naturally draw capital back to the dollar. Until this trend is locked in, we advise traders to focus on short-term income-generating options strategies rather than long-term trend-following.
