Bitcoin has managed to hold above a critical resistance level, with prospects of reaching all-time highs. Recent movements are influenced by improving expectations around trade tariffs, which have also propelled stock market performance.

Currently, Bitcoin is stabilising while awaiting new developments, particularly details of the first trade agreement. The Federal Reserve is withholding rate cuts amidst this uncertainty, pending labour market impacts. The focus is thus on the anticipated trade deal, expected to be revealed by the week’s end, or Monday at the latest.

Market players are assessing whether a 10% rate is the floor, as higher rates could prompt a selloff. Conversely, lower rates might accelerate Bitcoin towards all-time highs. On the daily chart, Bitcoin broke through a resistance zone near 90K, stabilising around 95K as it awaits trade resolution news.

From a technical standpoint, buyers see good risk to reward at 90K for a rally, whereas sellers anticipate a break downward to push prices to 85K. Four-hour chart analysis shows an expanding rising wedge pattern. While buyers focus on maintaining upward momentum, sellers eye a pullback to the 90K level. The FOMC decision may present a chance for buying on market dips, as optimism endures regarding the trade negotiations.

With Bitcoin hovering above a pivotal zone, what we’re seeing now is a market in a holding pattern — not frozen, but pausing to gather direction. Price has cleared a major area near 90K and, with limited new drivers, begun consolidating just above. Stability just below 95K reflects cautious positioning ahead of macroeconomic data and clarity on trade policy.

Looking backwards, much of the rally appears to have been underpinned not only by better than expected signals from trade talks, but also by the broader relief that monetary tightening may ease sooner rather than later. Stock indices climbing in parallel have only added to this directional bias, offering a tailwind to risk assets across the board. However, the wind isn’t without gusts — it’s the calibration of forward policy that remains the missing piece.

From a rate-setting standpoint, the Fed has deliberately stepped aside, withholding further action while awaiting confirmation of economic softness or resilience. Labour data has provided enough ambiguity to keep speculation alive. All eyes rest now on whether the upcoming agreement alters inflation expectations sharply enough to sway policy. It’s a waiting game, but not one we can ignore.

In the shorter-term charts, patterns indicate less conviction than the daily timeframes would imply. The expanding wedge on the four-hour highlights that, although highs are being probed, the base remains vulnerable. A slip under the lower trendline opens a straightforward path to 90K. This level, previously a ceiling, is being watched closely to step into support. Movement here may not be dramatic, but timing will be key.

From where we stand, the market isn’t overleveraged, yet derivatives positioning shows a shift in balance. Premiums on perpetual swaps are starting to flatten, and the long-to-short ratio has dipped slightly. Traders who had anticipated instant continuation higher are now de-risking, although there isn’t clear evidence yet of aggressive shorts stepping in. Instead, there’s suggestion the market wants to reset some of that froth before potentially pushing again.

What’s important now is focus — not simply on levels, but on how the market reacts to the incoming data. Volatility around macro news releases may offer short windows for position-building, especially if liquidity remains thin during off hours. Minor retracements are worth watching, particularly if pushed by headlines rather than changes in on-chain flows. Momentum does not appear exhausted — if anything, it’s pausing for breath.

In terms of signals, bid depth in order books shows underlying interest building near 91K and thinning notably below 88K, hinting at where buyers are most comfortable adding risk. Short-term demand still favours rebounds from micro dips, but continuation will require either a breakout narrative from the trade front or firm detail from upcoming central bank commentary.

For now, we act with precision. Passive entries closer to technical inflection points — supported by data rather than guesswork — provide the clearest opportunities. Until headline risk fades, there’s no need to chase. Let the market come to you.