Biogen Inc. (BIIB), once trading at $470 in 2021, now maintains a price around $140. Recently, BIIB surpassed a significant descending trendline dating back to 2023, peaking at $160 before retracing to the breakout level. The retracement presents a window for potential buyers to engage at the trendline, with technical analysis suggesting a possible target of $190.

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Shares of Biogen are giving us a classic technical setup right now, on October 20th, 2025. The stock has broken a significant downtrend line that started back in 2023 and is now retesting that breakout point around $140. This retrace to the “scene of the crime” presents a textbook entry point for a potential move higher.

For derivative traders, this suggests buying call options to capitalize on the expected rally towards the $190 target. We should look at expirations in December 2025 or January 2026 to allow enough time for the trade to develop, possibly focusing on the $150 or $160 strike prices for a good balance of risk and reward. Recent options data shows a notable increase in call volume for these expirations, suggesting others are positioning for upside.

This technical strength is supported by improving fundamentals, as we await Q3 earnings in early November. Sales of the Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi, a key growth driver, are expected to show continued momentum, with consensus estimates projecting over $650 million for the quarter. This would represent a significant increase from the sales figures we saw earlier in the year.

The broader biotech sector is also showing signs of life after being out of favor for much of 2023 and 2024. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is up nearly 5% this month, as the stabilized interest rate environment is making growth-oriented sectors more attractive again. This sector-wide tailwind could provide an additional lift for Biogen shares.

A more risk-defined strategy would be to use a bull call spread, such as buying the December $150 call and selling the December $180 call. This would lower the initial cost of the trade and define the maximum profit, making it a less expensive way to bet on a rally. This approach is particularly prudent given the potential volatility around the upcoming earnings announcement.

We must also consider the risk that this breakout fails, which has happened before with this stock, particularly following the Aduhelm disappointment back in 2021. If the stock fails to hold support and closes decisively back below the $135 level on a daily basis, the bullish thesis would be invalidated. This level serves as a clear signal for us to exit the position and cut losses.