U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is returning to Washington, D.C., to testify before Congress. Greer and Lutnick will continue handling trade discussions in his absence.

The discussions have been described as productive, with the dialogue set to continue as required. Bessent’s departure does raise questions about the progress of the talks.

Impact of Bessent’s Absence

Bessent’s decision to travel back to Washington to appear before Congress may bring a shift in the pace of ongoing discussions. While Greer and Lutnick are expected to manage the current lines of negotiation, their approach and decision-making rhythm are not identical to that of Bessent’s. What that means in practical terms is a potential recalibration of expectations among counterparties. With Bessent unavailable for the time being, certain bottlenecks might not be cleared as quickly—particularly those requiring Treasury authorisation or broader policy clarity.

From our point of view, market participants calibrated to recent conditions may need to adjust their expectations subtly. The labelling of talks as “productive” should be viewed in context—it suggests progress, yes, but not necessarily resolution. And while dialogue is continuing, the absence of a key figure introduces a pause in tone, if not in volume.

In the coming weeks, we should not expect sudden inflection points. This environment tends to favour strategies that emphasise patience over reaction. For traders engaged in rate-sensitive instruments or leveraged positioning, hedging assumptions around timing may require tweaking. It’s no longer strictly a question of where markets are headed, but also when feedback channels will reopen at full capacity.

Strategic Considerations for Traders

Greer and Lutnick, remaining in position, convey continuity. However, they do not control calendar outcomes or shape the legislative backdrop in the same way. For us, that means lower odds of short-term triggers emerging from the political side, even as pricing continues to lean on expectations.

Volatility, for now, remains in check—but it is less about surface calm and more about the timing uncertainty veiled beneath. Those focused on duration bets or anticipating Treasury issuance updates should account for the time Bessent must allocate upon re-entering the Congressional setting. That transitional period presents a window where reaction times may stretch, meaning liquidity providers might choose to widen spreads or revisit premiums.

It is not disruption, but it is delay. Nuance matters.

Those of us managing derivatives across yield curves and basis trades will want to revisit any assumptions that hinge on forward clarity. We are, currently, navigating a period of interim stewardship—not drift, but tempered progress. That calls for a watchful approach, more so around how quickly finality arrives than on the direction itself.

In summary, decision bottlenecks may not be resolved sequentially. The trade desk should keep models weighted toward delayed resolution and staggered response rather than rapid acceleration. We proceed with engagement, but without the presumption of immediacy.

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