Inflation and Currency Expectations
Banco de México’s October survey of private-sector economists showed a broad upward trim to inflation expectations and a year-end view for USD/MXN close to the 18.50 psychological level. The median forecast for headline inflation in 2026 edged up to 3.88% from 3.87%, before easing to 3.85% in 2027. Core inflation was marked lower for year-end at 3.82% versus 3.90% previously, and is also seen at 3.82% in 2027.
Growth Outlook and Monetary Policy
On activity, economists lifted their 2026 growth call to 1.50% from 1.40%, while 2027 growth is pencilled in at 1.83%, near 2%. For monetary policy, Banxico is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. The peso is forecast to end the year with USD/MXN at 18.39, and to trade around 18.64 in 2027, as rate-setting continues to be framed by the central bank’s 3% inflation target within a 2%–4% tolerance band.
