Thailand’s central bank kept its policy rate at 1.00% for a fourth consecutive meeting, and it continues to project modest expansion over the medium term. The Bank of Thailand sees GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, setting a cautious macro backdrop as policymakers balance external demand against domestic constraints.
AI-related demand is providing some lift, with exports up 24% year on year in September, but the Bank of Thailand flagged ongoing pressure on tourism and private consumption. Higher oil prices, elevated household debt and weak purchasing power were cited as drags. Separately, a major bank maintained a cautious stance on the baht, keeping its USD/THB forecast at 34.10 by end-2026, while describing risks as skewed towards further THB weakness if the oil shock intensifies.
Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook
Thailand’s central bank kept its policy rate at 1.00% for a fourth consecutive meeting, and it continues to project modest expansion over the medium term. The Bank of Thailand sees GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, setting a cautious macro backdrop as policymakers balance external demand against domestic constraints.
External Influences and Currency Forecasts
AI-related demand is providing some lift, with exports up 24% year on year in September, but the Bank of Thailand flagged ongoing pressure on tourism and private consumption. Higher oil prices, elevated household debt and weak purchasing power were cited as drags. Separately, a major bank maintained a cautious stance on the baht, keeping its USD/THB forecast at 34.10 by end-2026, while describing risks as skewed towards further THB weakness if the oil shock intensifies.
