The Bank of Japan is due to announce policy on Friday at about 02:30 GMT, with markets expecting no change after September’s 25 bps rise to 1.25%, Japan’s highest level in 31 years. The BoJ has delivered two quarter-point hikes so far this year, and attention is shifting to the policy statement, the outlook report and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference for guidance into year-end. Ueda has pointed to energy-related price risks and the need to keep core inflation anchored near the 2% target, while repeating that rates can rise further as long as financial conditions remain accommodative. His 16 October remarks were rated 8.2/10 by FXStreet’s Speechtracker versus an average of 7.5, and he linked the timing of future moves to factors including FX, AI-related demand and Middle East developments.
Rate Expectations And Poll Results
Rate expectations for December have firmed: in a 13–19 October Reuters poll, nearly 70% of economists expected the policy rate to reach 1.5% this quarter, with 54 of 78 forecasting a rise.
USD/JPY Technical Levels
In FX, USD/JPY was around 157.80, having traded for over a month between 156.08 and 159.04. The 20-day EMA sits at 157.77 and is flat, while the RSI has held in the 40.00–60.00 band; support is seen at 156.08 then 155.00, and resistance at 159.04, 160.00 and about 160.40.
