A bank’s macro team expects the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% in October, pushing back against market pricing for an immediate hike. The forecast assumes policymakers will wait for further evidence on inflation breadth and near-term growth, while assessing how new tariffs feed through to activity and prices.
Expectations For October Policy Rate Decision
A bank’s macro team expects the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% in October, pushing back against market pricing for an immediate hike. The forecast assumes policymakers will wait for further evidence on inflation breadth and near-term growth, while assessing how new tariffs feed through to activity and prices.
Outlook For Future Rate Increases
The same team anticipates tightening later in the year, pencilling in two 25bp increases, first in December and then in January. That path would lift the policy rate towards the midpoint of the central bank’s neutral range, while leaving room to adjust if the growth outlook proves less benign or if underlying inflation pressures broaden.
