The Australian Dollar eased on Monday, down over 0.26%, even as Wall Street closed higher and hopes of a US-Iran de-escalation pressured oil prices. Broad US Dollar strength kept AUD/USD on the back foot at 0.7016, despite expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may lift rates towards year-end. Central bank risk dominates the week, with the Federal Reserve due on Wednesday and expected to leave policy unchanged; money markets still price a hike, while the accompanying press conference will be scrutinised for any dovish tilt.
Upcoming Economic Events and Central Bank Risks
Data risk is also building. In the US, attention turns on Tuesday to Durable Goods Orders, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average and Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence. In Australia, an RBA Governor speech and inflation figures follow on Wednesday, with Trimmed Mean CPI for September seen at 0.3% MoM versus 0.2% in August, and any annual print above 3.6% seen as supportive of another rate move.
Technical Outlook for AUD/USD
Technically, AUD/USD remains below the SMA cluster near 0.7073 and a trend-line around 0.7103, with RSI at 50.6; support sits near 0.6919 then 0.6354, while resistance levels include 0.7198, 0.7453, 0.8968 and 0.9941.
