Insights 
VT 
The Canadian unemployment rate is expected to rise as the labour market shows signs of cooling. This could lead to further rate cuts, while the Canadian Dollar remains below the 1.4000 level.
US tariffs remain a key aspect of foreign policy, serving as a tool for public finance. Despite media fluctuations, these tariffs are maintained and the government has reinforced their usage as a policy tool.
Coinbase Mastercard And BVNK
Coinbase and Mastercard are reportedly in negotiations to acquire stablecoin infrastructure firm BVNK. The potential deal is valued between $1.5 and $2.5 billion, although it remains uncertain as discussions are ongoing.
The EUR/USD has rebounded, moving toward 1.1600 after recent declines. The rise coincides with upcoming US Consumer Sentiment data from the University of Michigan.
GBP/USD is stabilising around 1.3300 after recent losses, assisted by cautious comments from BoE officials and a technical USD correction. Anticipation of US data is influencing the pair’s performance.
Gold prices are under pressure, trading below $4,000, despite a lack of continued selling. The USD’s slight retreat and factors like Fed rate cut bets provide some support for gold amid geopolitical and economic concerns.
Canadian Unemployment Rate And USD Tariffs
With the Canadian unemployment rate now confirmed to have risen to 6.4% in September, the path seems clearer for more rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. This reinforces the view we’ve held since the summer of 2025 that the Canadian Dollar will remain weak against the greenback. We see value in buying put options on the CAD/USD pair, targeting a move below the 1.3800 level in the coming weeks.
The ongoing US tariff policy continues to create under-the-radar volatility, even when it’s not in the headlines. For example, the recent reaffirmation of tariffs on European automotive parts, now at 25%, continues to weigh on the sector. Buying call options on the VIX, which is currently hovering around a modest 18, could be a cheap way to hedge against a sudden spike in trade tensions.
The potential $2 billion acquisition in the stablecoin space by giants like Coinbase and Mastercard is a strong signal of institutional commitment to digital assets. This type of consolidation is a sign of a maturing market, similar to the wave of tech M&A we saw back in the early 2020s. We believe long-dated call options on major crypto ETFs are becoming an increasingly attractive portfolio addition for long-term growth.
The euro is seeing a temporary bounce toward 1.1600, largely because the US Dollar is taking a breather after its recent run. The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index came in at a slightly disappointing 68.5, giving traders an excuse to take profit on long USD positions. We are looking at this as an opportunity to sell call spreads on the EUR/USD, as we expect the dollar’s broader strength to resume.
Sterling is finding some stability near 1.3300, helped by Bank of England officials sounding reluctant to rush into policy easing. With UK core inflation still sticky above 3%, the market is not pricing in aggressive rate cuts just yet. This suggests range-bound trading, making strategies like an iron condor on the GBP/USD pair appealing for collecting premium over the next few weeks.
Gold’s inability to hold above $4,000 despite a supportive backdrop of potential Fed cuts and geopolitical risk is telling. CFTC data from last week showed speculative net long positions declined for the third consecutive week, indicating weakening conviction from bulls. Given the strong support around the $3,950 level, selling out-of-the-money put options on gold futures seems like a calculated risk for income generation.
