AUD/USD is trading at 0.6993, maintaining a constructive bias while it holds above the 200-day SMA at 0.6901, but it has yet to secure a sustained break through 0.7000. Overhead resistance sits at the 55-day SMA of 0.7038 and the 100-day SMA of 0.7057, with a further barrier at 0.7079; beyond that, levels flagged include 0.7278, 0.7283 and 0.7661. Momentum readings are muted, with the RSI (14) around 52 and the ADX near 19, reinforcing a consolidation view, while downside supports are mapped at 0.6833, 0.6660, 0.6593, 0.6414 and 0.6373, and a daily close below the 200-day SMA would undermine the broader setup.
Domestic And International Economic Data
Domestic data remain mixed. July PMIs showed Manufacturing at 51.7 versus 51.5 and Services at 53.0 versus 50.5, while June’s unemployment rate held at 4.4% and employment rose by 76.3K after a revised 44K. However, May posted a A$3.018 billion trade deficit after April’s A$1.383 billion surplus, and GDP slowed to 0.3% QoQ from 0.9% even as annual growth stayed at 2.5%. Inflation eased to 4.0% YoY from 4.2%, yet the trimmed mean and weighted median rose to 3.6% from 3.4%, with expectations at 4.7% versus 5.5; the RBA held the OCR at 4.35% and markets price about 25 basis points more tightening by year-end. China grew 4.3% YoY in Q2, with industrial production at 5.3% and retail sales at 1.0%, as the trade surplus widened to $125.62 billion from $105.4 billion and the PBoC kept the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year at 3.50%. Positioning data show net shorts at 37.7K versus 30.7K, open interest at 225.2K from 208.5K, exposure at -16.7% from -14.7%, and the four-week change at -24.7K versus -26.6K, implying rejection risk below 0.7000 but squeeze potential if that level gives way.
