Insights 
VT 
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price increased early in the European session, trading at $61.24 per barrel, rising from Friday’s close at $60.70. Meanwhile, Brent crude remained stable at around $64.58.
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil known for its low gravity and sulfur content, making it high quality and easy to refine. Sourced in the United States, it is distributed via the Cushing hub, a major benchmark for the Oil market and often quoted in the media.
Drivers Of WTI Oil Price
The main drivers of WTI Oil price include global supply and demand, political instability, wars, and sanctions, as well as OPEC’s production decisions. The US Dollar’s value also affects WTI prices since Oil is typically traded in USD.
Weekly Oil inventory reports from the API and EIA influence WTI Oil prices by reflecting supply and demand changes. A drop in inventories can indicate rising demand, boosting prices, while higher inventories may lower them.
OPEC, comprising 12 Oil-producing countries, impacts prices by adjusting production quotas. OPEC+ includes additional non-OPEC members like Russia, which further influences supply decisions and consequently WTI prices.
With West Texas Intermediate crude oil showing some strength at $61.24, we are seeing a classic conflict for traders. This slight bullishness clashes with a strong US Dollar Index, which is holding firm just under the 100 mark. A strong dollar typically pressures oil prices downward, creating a tense setup for the weeks ahead.
Current Market Influences
The demand picture remains a significant concern, which could limit any major price increases. China’s latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI, released last week for October 2025, came in at 49.5, indicating a contraction in factory activity and fueling worries about consumption from the world’s largest oil importer. We have seen this pattern before, such as in late 2023, when weak economic data from China consistently capped oil price rallies.
On the supply side, all eyes are turning toward the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for early December 2025. Following their decision in June 2025 to extend production cuts, there is widespread speculation that the cartel will maintain this policy to support prices, especially given the demand-side worries. This anticipation of tighter supply is likely providing a floor for the current price.
This week, the most immediate catalysts will be the inventory reports, with the API data due tomorrow and the official EIA numbers on Wednesday. After last week’s EIA report showed a surprise draw of 1.2 million barrels, another draw could push WTI toward the $63-$64 resistance level. Conversely, a significant build in inventories would reinforce the weak demand narrative and could quickly erase today’s gains.
We must also watch the Federal Reserve, as a hawkish stance continues to support the dollar. Market pricing, reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool, shows a greater than 70% probability of another rate hike before the end of the year to combat persistent inflation figures seen in the third quarter of 2025. This enduring dollar strength could act as a ceiling for any oil rally, presenting opportunities for traders playing both sides of the market.
