The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surged to approximately $60.10 in early Asian trading on Thursday. This increase followed the Trump administration’s imposition of sanctions on major Russian oil companies, fuelling concerns over reduced crude exports from Russia.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprising decline in US crude oil inventories, pointing to stronger demand. For the week ending October 17, there was a decrease of 961,000 barrels, contrasting with a forecasted rise of 1.8 million barrels.

Impact Of OPEC+ Production Plans

Despite this, potential oversupply issues might limit further price increases. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) plan to increase oil supply, raising concerns about future surpluses. Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted a global oversupply of 4 million barrels per day by 2026.

WTI oil, known for being “light” and “sweet,” is a high-quality crude primarily sold on international markets. Supply, demand, geopolitical events, and the US dollar value influence its price. Inventory data from the EIA and American Petroleum Institute (API) further impacts prices, with decreases hinting at increased demand. OPEC’s production decisions significantly affect WTI oil prices through supply adjustments.

We are seeing WTI crude react strongly to the new US sanctions against major Russian oil companies. The jump to near $60.10 is a direct response to fears of a tighter global supply, coming on top of an unexpected drop in US inventories. This creates a bullish short-term signal for traders.

The geopolitical risk premium in oil is now clearly elevated. Looking back from our perspective in 2025, these fresh sanctions add another layer to the measures first put in place during the early years of the Ukraine war. Traders should consider buying near-term call options to capitalize on potential further price spikes if Russia retaliates or supply chains are disrupted.

Surprise Inventory Drop

The surprise inventory draw of nearly 1 million barrels last week, against forecasts of a build, suggests demand may be stronger than anticipated. We will be closely watching the next EIA report due this coming Wednesday for confirmation of this trend. Another significant draw would reinforce the bullish case and likely push prices higher.

However, we must balance this against the broader supply picture. OPEC+ has been signaling a ramp-up in production, a shift from the coordinated cuts we saw through much of 2023 and 2024 which kept prices supported. This planned increase, combined with IEA forecasts of a significant surplus next year, could cap any major rally above the mid-$60s.

This conflict between immediate supply shocks and a longer-term supply surplus is a recipe for increased volatility. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has already jumped over 15% this past week, reflecting this market uncertainty. Options strategies that profit from price swings, such as long straddles, could be effective in this environment.

For the coming weeks, the immediate momentum appears upward, favoring bullish positions. However, given the bearish supply forecasts from major agencies, these should be managed carefully. We believe traders should be ready to take profits quickly as the market digests the conflicting supply and demand signals.

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