Insights 
VT 
Gold prices surged nearly 2% daily and 5% weekly, with XAU/USD reaching $3,359 after rebounding from $3,287. The rise followed US President Trump’s tariff threats against the EU, affecting the US Dollar.
US Treasury yields pulled back as fiscal concerns grew over the approved debt-raising bill, potentially raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion. Trump’s comments ignited market risk-aversion, leading to a drop in the US Dollar Index and a bullish outlook for gold.
International Trade and Negotiations
In trade, discussions with the EU showed no progress, with Trump considering 50% tariffs on EU imports. Meanwhile, as negotiations continue, US and Iran held talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme, and Russia advanced ceasefire efforts in Ukraine.
Data showed mixed results for the US housing sector in April, with building permits down 4% and new home sales up 10.9%. Several Fed officials commented on market uncertainties, while markets anticipated easing by 49.5 bps by year’s end.
Gold prices are poised to challenge $3,400, with the first resistance at recent highs of $3,438 and $3,450. Support levels lie at $3,300 and the May 20 low of $3,204.
Market Analysis
The article above outlines several factors that have led to recent movements in gold prices and broader market reactions. Here’s what it all means and how it might inform decisions in the coming trading sessions.
Steady price appreciation in gold—almost 5% over the week—is largely a response to geopolitical shifts and monetary policy expectations, both of which tend to impact appetite for risk and hedge assets. The metal touched $3,359 after shaking off lows earlier in the week, illustrating that buyers remain active on dips. Notably, this surge coincided with a sharp turn in sentiment following Trump’s tariff comments, which spurred a decline in dollar strength. As the greenback fell, gold—inverse by nature—caught the bid.
We’ve seen this play out before; talk of trade tensions or fiscal strain often injects volatility into rates and currency markets. With bond yields retreating as concerns mount over the size of the United States’ future borrowing, investors are adjusting portfolios to reflect increased reliance on debt expansion. That bill is set to lift the ceiling by another $4 trillion—not a small figure by any stretch—so bond traders are already factoring in implications for inflation and central bank response.
Looking at the global context, the absence of breakthroughs in trade negotiations with Europe, coupled with discussions around harsher import policies, continues to weigh on sentiment. Meanwhile, political signals from the Middle East and Eastern Europe have rekindled defensive positioning, which adds further momentum to safe-haven demand.
Economic data at home added another wrinkle. While new home sales jumped by nearly 11%, building permits fell off by 4%, suggesting near-term activity may stay intact but forward momentum remains uncertain. It’s no surprise then that several Federal Reserve members highlighted persistent unknowns around economic stability. Market pricing for Fed policy is leaning towards an almost 50 basis point cut this year, which fuels the rally in non-yielding assets.
From a technical standpoint, prices are hovering just beneath key thresholds. The next upside objectives are clear at $3,438 and then $3,450, which align with recent highs. With these levels in focus, any breach could trigger a new wave of momentum-driven buying.
That being said, underlying support remains firm at $3,300 and the lower pivot around $3,204 from late May. This creates a fairly broad trading band, offering risk parameters for directional setups. Breaks on either end will warrant recalibration.
We are watching this closely over the next few sessions. The coming data releases, policy remarks, and geopolitical developments all have the potential to extend or reverse the current bias. For now, directional trades should monitor these boundary levels acutely for confirmation.
