Insights 
VT 
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged lower to around $61.00 per barrel on Tuesday, losing gains from the previous day amid continued concerns over oversupply and global demand. The modest OPEC+ production hike of 137,000 barrels per day has not significantly bolstered prices, and a firmer US Dollar is limiting upward movement.
Despite some geopolitical concerns, such as a drone strike on Russia’s Kirishi refinery, oil flows remain largely stable. Traders are awaiting inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for further market cues.
Technical Analysis Of WTI
Technically, WTI struggles below the $61.50 resistance level and is trading under key moving averages, reinforcing a bearish stance. Momentum indicators suggest weak buying pressure, with the Relative Strength Index hovering near 42 and the MACD below zero.
WTI Oil refers to a type of crude oil sourced in the United States and is a global price benchmark. The price is influenced by global supply and demand, political events, and US Dollar values. Regular inventory reports and OPEC’s production quotas significantly affect price fluctuations.
The current environment for WTI crude points towards a bearish strategy in the coming weeks. With the price struggling to stay above $61.00 and facing strong resistance at $61.50, we see limited upside. This suggests traders should consider positions that benefit from either a drop in price or sideways consolidation.
Market Supply And Demand Factors
We believe the fears of weak global demand are justified, especially after seeing the latest manufacturing PMI data from China. September 2025’s numbers indicated a slowdown in factory activity for the second straight month. This trend aligns with sluggish economic reports coming out of the Eurozone, dampening the outlook for energy consumption.
On the supply side, last week’s EIA report showing a surprise inventory build of 2.1 million barrels continues to weigh on the market. This build occurred despite the modest OPEC+ production adjustments, signaling that supply is still outpacing demand. Until we see significant inventory draws, it will be difficult for a rally to gain traction.
For traders using options, selling call spreads with a ceiling around the $62.00 level could be an effective way to collect premium from expected price stagnation. Alternatively, buying puts with strike prices below $60.00 would position for a break of the recent lows. These strategies capitalize on the prevailing bearish momentum while defining risk.
This market behavior is reminiscent of the price action we saw back in the second quarter of 2023, when demand fears also capped any rallies. However, we must remain cautious of geopolitical risks like the recent Russian refinery incident. A sudden supply disruption could quickly invalidate bearish positions, making stop-losses essential.
