UnitedHealth Group is nearing a pivotal point on its stock chart. Recent sessions will reveal if its recovery from August lows is sustainable or if sellers regain control. The stock is approaching a trendline that previously offered support but now poses resistance.

Historically, a trendline supported the stock’s rise from early 2025, peaking between $455.84 and $475.27 by April. Once it dropped below this line, the line turned into resistance at $439.32. The rejection from this point saw the stock fall to the low $240s, wiping out gains.

After bottoming in August, the stock has rallied to a range of $365-$382. This effort faces the declining trendline around $382.96. The stock’s movement at this point will reveal if buyers can regain ground.

UNH’s recent earnings report showed earnings per share of $2.92 on $113.16 billion revenue for Q3 2025. Despite surpassing consensus estimates, it narrowly missed the Earnings Whisper number of $2.93 by 0.34%. The company’s solid fundamentals contrast with the lack of buying enthusiasm to breach resistance.

For a bullish shift, the price must close decisively above $382.96 with follow-through. Alternatively, if resistance holds, the stock could revert to the $365 range or lower. Proper risk management for bulls involves waiting for an above $382.96 confirmation, while bears should maintain stops above $385. Upcoming trading sessions will reveal which direction prevails.

UnitedHealth Group is facing a critical test right now. After rallying hard from the August lows, the stock is running into a major resistance trendline around $382.96. The next few weeks will likely decide if this recovery is real or just a setup for another drop.

For derivative traders, this uncertainty is creating opportunity, with implied volatility ticking up. Options pricing for UNH now suggests an expected move of about 6% over the next 30 days, which is in the 80th percentile of its historical range for the past year. This means option premiums are elevated, which is something we must factor into any strategy.

If we see a strong move and a close above $382.96, that’s the signal for a bullish play. We could look at buying December call options, perhaps with a strike price of $390, to capture the potential momentum toward $400. A more conservative approach would be a bull call spread to reduce the cost, given the high volatility.

On the other hand, if the stock stalls and gets rejected at that $382.96 level, the downtrend remains in force. This bearish outlook is supported by options data, where the 25-delta risk reversal shows puts are significantly more expensive than calls. A failure here would make buying December $370-strike puts an attractive way to position for a slide back toward the $365 support level.

We should also remember the external factors at play, as the entire healthcare sector is holding its breath. Investors are nervously awaiting the preliminary 2026 Medicare Advantage rate notice from the government, which is due in the coming weeks. A disappointing announcement could provide the catalyst that confirms resistance and sends the stock lower, regardless of the chart pattern.

The memory of what happened earlier this year, in 2025, is what makes this level so important for traders. When this exact trendline failed as support, the stock fell from over $430 to the low $240s in a matter of months. That sharp decline is why there is so much hesitation to buy aggressively right below this critical resistance.

Ultimately, we are watching for confirmation, and volume will be key. A breakout above $382.96 on high volume strengthens the bullish case, while a rejection on fading volume would favor the bears. Setting up straddles or strangles could be a way to play the expected volatility without picking a direction, though the higher premiums make it a costly strategy.