Insights 
VT 
WTI Crude Oil declined more than 3% during Friday trading but has gained 2.25% over the week. This drop sees prices nearing $66.70, having retreated from near $70 earlier in the week.
Geopolitical tensions increased after US President Donald Trump announced the positioning of nuclear submarines near Russia, leading to concerns over energy security. Trump’s comments via Truth Social have added to this volatility, especially as he also threatened tariffs on countries still importing Russian oil.
Technical Analysis
In technical terms, WTI remains within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with prices moving towards the lower boundary. There is a potential risk of a bearish breakout toward the $63.00-$60.00 range if the current support fails.
The support area is bolstered by the alignment of 50-day and 100-day EMAs, around $66.08 and $66.12, respectively. Should buyers defend this zone, it might lead to a rebound, possibly revisiting $70 or the June high of $76.74.
The Relative Strength Index is just above neutral at 50.30, with the MACD indicator showing weakening bullish momentum. As such, there remains no clear directional bias, reflecting the broader uncertainties in the market.
Market Sentiment and Strategy
We are currently seeing a tug-of-war in the oil market as of August 2, 2025. The geopolitical heat from the White House’s comments on Russia is providing upward pressure on prices. However, recent manufacturing PMI data for July 2025 from China came in at a slightly disappointing 50.2, indicating slowing factory activity and raising demand concerns.
Given the current setup, we believe a cautious approach is best for the coming weeks. A break below the critical support area around $66 could trigger a swift move down toward the $60-$63 range. This price level is significant, as we saw WTI consolidate in a similar zone back in late 2023 before its next major move.
The market seems skeptical that President Trump’s tariff threats will significantly curb Russian supply in the short term. We saw how the 2022 price caps were circumvented, and recent shipping data shows Russian oil exports to Asia remained robust through July 2025, averaging over 3.4 million barrels per day. This, combined with OPEC+ holding its production cuts firm since their June 2025 meeting, creates a very tense supply picture.
For those looking at a potential rebound, buying short-dated call options might be a prudent strategy. This would allow us to capitalize on a bounce off the strong support at the $66 moving averages without committing large amounts of capital. The initial target would be a retest of the $70 psychological level, with the June 2025 high near $77 as a secondary objective.
The technical indicators reflect this market indecision, with the RSI hovering near neutral and bullish momentum fading. Therefore, we should avoid taking large, high-conviction positions until the price breaks decisively out of its current triangular pattern. The key is to remain nimble and ready to act on a break in either direction.
