Insights 
VT 
Key Technical Insights
The 1.3900 mark remains critical, aligning with the recent consolidation’s neckline. Breaking below this level might bring fresh selling pressure, possibly dragging the pair to April lows near 1.3750.
The 4-hour chart shows recovery as USD/CAD bounced from 1.3905 and rose above the 21-period EMA at 1.3940. The RSI has climbed to 60.10, showing potential for further gains.
Resistance is at 1.4015, the May high. If broken, it could target 1.4070–1.4100. Failure to break 1.4015 may indicate a double-top formation, risking a retest of the 1.3900–1.3910 zone.
The rally occurs on moderate volume, suggesting reactive flows. The pair trades within a rising wedge pattern, which can lead to continuation or reversal. The 1.3900–1.3930 area acts as support, needed to maintain a bullish view.
Upcoming Data Releases
Upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and Canadian Housing data on Thursday could impact the pair’s movement.
This week, USD/CAD has found a foothold near 1.3900 and managed to stage a bounce in the US session, trading around 1.3975. Buyers appear to be probing higher ground as they test resistance near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average around 1.4030. It’s a level that often invites selling pressure, but should gains lead to a solid daily close above this mark, the path may open back up toward 1.4150 and beyond to 1.4290.
Earlier in the week, the pair settled above the 21-day EMA near 1.3920—an encouraging signal for directional bias, particularly when supported by improving momentum readings. The daily Relative Strength Index now sits at 52, a neutral but upward-leaning level, not quite in overbought territory but leaning towards demand-side strength. Often, these levels suggest complacency among sellers while buyers begin to regroup.
