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VT 
WTI oil prices remain around $57.00 due to concerns of oversupply from OPEC+ members. There is unease as the International Energy Agency expects possible increased production by OPEC+ and a possible market surplus.
President Donald Trump claimed India’s Prime Minister assured a halt in Russian oil purchases, with a warning of possible tariffs otherwise. However, Indian sources suggest no immediate reduction, with future import data possibly affected from December.
Indian Imports Of Russian Oil
The data firm Kpler indicates India’s imports of Russian oil will rise by 20% in October to 1.9 million barrels per day. This is due in part to increased Russian exports after drone attacks on refineries.
WTI oil stands for West Texas Intermediate, a major Crude Oil type. It is characterised by its low gravity and sulphur content. Its price is influenced by supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and the US dollar value.
Oil inventory data, provided by the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Agency, also impact prices. Reduced inventories can indicate higher demand. OPEC, and OPEC+ when including non-OPEC members like Russia, influences prices through production quotas. Lower quotas often lead to higher prices, while increased production can decrease prices.
Market Reactions And Strategies
With WTI crude struggling to hold above $57.00, we see the market reacting to growing fears of an oversupply. The International Energy Agency’s report from last week confirmed these concerns, projecting a larger market surplus than previously thought. This suggests that the path of least resistance for prices may be downward in the near term.
This view is supported by the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, which now forecasts a global supply surplus of 0.8 million barrels per day for this final quarter of 2025. This increase in projected surplus inventories puts direct pressure on prices. We should therefore watch the upcoming weekly inventory reports from the API and EIA very closely for confirmation of this trend.
Geopolitical factors are also weighing on the market, as threats against India for purchasing Russian oil appear to be having little effect. Despite warnings from the US, recent tanker tracking data shows India’s imports of Russian crude are indeed rising this month toward 1.9 million barrels per day. This reinforces the theme that global supply remains robust despite political pressures.
We have seen this pattern before, particularly in the 2022-2024 period, where sanctioned oil finds its way to market, tempering the impact of geopolitical events on supply. For traders, this environment makes buying put options an attractive strategy to profit from a potential drop below the $57 support level. Selling out-of-the-money call options could also be considered to collect premium, betting that a significant price rally is unlikely.
