Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) is expected to trade within a range of 151.30 to 152.70. Current price shifts indicate the early stage of a broader range-trading phase, projected between 149.50 and 153.00, as noted by UOB Group’s FX analysts.
In the 24-hour view, the USD experienced an unexpected drop to 151.15 last Friday. Although it closed at 151.15, it opened higher on the following trading day. The downward pressure seems to be subsiding, with expectations of trading within the 151.30 to 152.70 range instead of further decline.
Emerging Range Trading Phase
Looking at a 1-3 weeks view, the USD hit 153.27 last Friday before reversing abruptly. The sudden drop breached the ‘strong support’ level of 151.40, indicating the end of the strength shown earlier in the week. The current price movements suggest an emerging range-trading phase likely between 149.20 and 153.00.
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Given today’s date, October 13, 2025, it appears the strong upward trend in USD/JPY has concluded for now. The sharp rejection from last Friday’s high of 153.27 suggests we are entering a period of consolidation. For the next few weeks, derivative traders should adjust strategies away from directional bets and toward range-bound plays, likely between 149.20 and 153.00.
This shift in momentum is supported by recent fundamental data. Last week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September came in at 3.1% year-over-year, below the forecast of 3.3%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s dovish tilt. These figures give credibility to recent signals from Fed officials supporting two more quarter-point rate cuts before year-end, capping further dollar strength.
On the other side, the Japanese yen is unlikely to strengthen significantly on its own. Last week, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda reiterated that the bank will patiently maintain its accommodative policy until wage growth and inflation are sustainably at target. This policy divergence creates a floor for the currency pair, preventing a sharp, sustained decline below the 149.00 level.
Defensive Strategies for Traders
The upper bound of the range around 153.00 appears to be defended by the threat of intervention. The abrupt reversal from 153.27 last Friday had all the hallmarks of official jawboning from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, echoing the decisive interventions we saw back in late 2022 and 2024 when the pair crossed similar thresholds. The market is now conditioned to be wary of testing these higher levels too aggressively.
This environment is well-suited for strategies that profit from time decay and defined risk, such as selling options. Traders could consider selling strangles by writing out-of-the-money puts below 149.00 and calls above 153.50. Alternatively, setting up an iron condor could offer a more risk-defined way to capitalize on the expected lack of a major breakout.
Following last Friday’s plunge, implied volatility has likely ticked up, making options-selling strategies more attractive due to the higher premiums. However, this also signals the market’s nervousness, so positions should be managed carefully. We should use the proposed 151.30 to 152.70 levels as a guide for very short-term gamma scalping.
