Insights 
VT 
The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for Amazon shares from 11 October 2025 indicates a progressing five-wave impulsive pattern. From an initial low, wave ((i)) completed at $222, followed by wave ((ii)) pulling back to $211.03. Subsequent advances saw wave ((iii)) unfold, with wave i peaking at $223.32 and correcting in wave ii to $216.52. Wave iii then surged to $228.98, wave iv dipped to $225.54, and wave v reached $234, concluding wave (i). The wave (ii) retracement ended at $222.53 after a double three corrective pattern.
The stock then resumed its climb in wave (iii), achieving $255.55. A slight reversal in wave (iv) bottomed at $243.98, with wave (v) then driving up to $259, completing wave ((iii)). Wave ((iv)) is currently active, adjusting from the October 17 low. Continual support above $222.53 is anticipated, potentially leading to further gains.
The 45-minute Elliott Wave chart updates the market’s reaction post-11 April 2025. Predictions encourage cautious optimism, with the next support points expected in the 3, 7, or 11 swing sequence, ensuring the continuation of the upward movement.
The current structure in Amazon suggests the bullish impulse from the October 11, 2025 low is not yet complete. We are in a corrective wave ((iv)), which presents a tactical opportunity for entry. As long as the price remains above the key pivot of $222.53, the outlook remains positive for another move higher.
This technical view aligns with the strong Q3 earnings Amazon posted back on October 23, 2025, which showed impressive growth in both AWS and North American retail segments. Furthermore, recent forecasts from the National Retail Federation project a healthy 4.2% increase in holiday spending over the prior year, providing a strong seasonal tailwind. This fundamental backdrop supports the idea that the current dip is a consolidation before the next advance.
For derivative traders, this means we should watch for signs that this pullback is finding support, potentially around the recent low of $243.98. Selling out-of-the-money put spreads with a strike below the $222.53 pivot could be a way to collect premium while defining our risk. This strategy profits from both a price increase and time decay during the consolidation.
Alternatively, we could wait for the dip to show a clear bottom and then purchase call options or bull call spreads. Implied volatility has come down from the highs seen before the late October earnings report, making option premiums more reasonably priced for initiating new bullish positions. An expiration in January or February 2026 would give the expected final upward wave ((v)) enough time to play out.
We are also entering a historically strong period for the stock, as the fourth quarter has often provided gains for Amazon. Looking back at data from previous years, such as the strong Q4 performance in 2023, we’ve seen seasonal strength carry the stock through the end-of-year holiday season. This historical tendency reinforces our confidence in looking for buying opportunities on the current weakness.
