WTI Crude Oil prices continue to fall, staying near mid-$65 levels amid reduced trading, persistent demand worries, and no new market catalysts. The US benchmark is stuck in a range from Wednesday, showing traders’ cautious stance.

Market sentiment remains guarded with two important upcoming events: the OPEC+ meeting on July 5 and the July 9 deadline for possible US tariffs. OPEC+ is expected to approve another production rise of 411,000 barrels per day for August, although actual output is below target due to supply challenges.

Geopolitical Tensions Ease

Recent geopolitical tensions have decreased after a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and Iran’s recommitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Demand concerns persist, as US data shows an unexpected increase in crude inventories and weaker gasoline use, despite the peak driving season. The Energy Information Administration noted a 3.8 million barrel rise in stockpiles, and the International Energy Agency has downgraded its oil demand growth forecasts.

From a technical viewpoint, WTI is consolidating around $65.70, above a crucial support level near $64.00. Below this, a fall to around $60.45 is possible. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with prices staying below the 20-day moving average at $67.70, indicating a mildly bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index at 49 reflects a neutral stance, matching the range-bound price dynamics.

We’ve seen West Texas Intermediate crude drifting lower, settling uncomfortably close to the mid-$65 level. The move isn’t dramatic, but the reluctance of prices to regain higher ground hints at broader hesitations across the board. With volumes lighter than usual, liquidity thins out. That’s rarely a good companion for clarity.

Market Hesitations And Events

Part of this wavering stems from two events that are nearly upon us. The OPEC+ gathering set for early July comes with expectation—though expectations now appear tempered. What was originally thought to be another incremental production increase may prove hollow if current supply constraints remain unresolved. Russia, along with other members, continues struggling to meet quotas. So, whatever is agreed might only register symbolically, producing few real barrels.

Then there’s the July 9 checkpoint—related to Washington’s pending tariff decisions. While this doesn’t directly affect crude barrels, the ripple effect on economic outlook and risk appetite is unmistakable. Markets don’t like binary, politically-driven outcomes. These deadlines tend to freeze forward hedging behaviour.

Short-term attention has turned to storage levels, and here the reports weren’t comforting. Stocks climbed by 3.8 million barrels, just as drivers filled tanks for summer travel. Yet, even the high season failed to lift demand metrics. Weakness in gasoline consumption at this time of year is rare. That it coincides with a subdued global growth picture—confirmed by an International Energy Agency downgrade—adds weight to the downside bias.

From a technical position, things feel heavy. Levels around $64.00 are acting as a floor for the moment. But if that line breaks under pressure, valuations closer to $60.45 are not off the table. Bollinger Bands have tightened—typical before directional moves. Price has spent time below the 20-day average, which sits a few dollars higher at $67.70. That’s not inherently negative, but when it aligns with lacklustre momentum—as shown by Relative Strength hovering near 49—it implies indecision and fatigue.

The current structure signals opportunity only with tight discipline. Rebounds will need to reclaim the short-term average with volume to inspire confidence. Until then, we are dealing with a setup prone to fades and failed rallies. Targets should remain modest. Risk defined clearly. The bounce potential may emerge only through unexpected headlines or data surprises. But for now, the trend is capped and directionally shallow.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.