Insights 
VT 
Silver prices are stable near $49, similar to Gold’s consolidation before the release of important US data. A strong US Dollar and rising Treasury yields are affecting precious metals. The US-China trade truce reduces the demand for safe havens, despite ongoing fiscal uncertainties in the US.
Silver Trading Analysis
Silver is trading near $49 per ounce amid mixed signals from the US Federal Reserve and progress in US-China diplomacy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent statements dampen expectations for further interest rate cuts, impacting Treasury yields and the US Dollar.
The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit resulted in a one-year trade truce until November 2026. This agreement temporarily lessens tensions, affecting safe-haven demand for Silver. The continuing US government shutdown fuels political and economic uncertainty, impacting growth prospects.
Silver prices are stabilising below the $49.40 resistance area, with potential for a bearish correction if prices fall below $48.69. A significant drop could target $41.80, while breaking above $49.40 may lead to testing the 100-period Simple Moving Average at $50.01. The market remains slightly upbeat, influenced by horizontal SMA and RSI readings between 50 and 70.
We see silver struggling to find direction around the $49 mark, caught between conflicting signals. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts is keeping a lid on prices, but the ongoing government shutdown provides a floor of uncertainty. This tug-of-war creates a tense environment for the metal in the coming weeks.
The formation of a potential double-top near $49.40 is a major red flag we are watching closely. A break below the intraday low of $48.69 could trigger a slide towards the $45.56 support level. Given this risk, we are considering buying put options to hedge or speculate on a correction, similar to the sharp declines we saw after the 2011 peak.
Market Implications for Silver
On the other hand, a decisive break above the $49.40 resistance would invalidate the bearish pattern and could attract fresh buying. This could open the path toward the $50 psychological level and eventually retest the recent all-time high of $54.86. In this scenario, call options or bull call spreads would be our preferred tools to capture the upward momentum.
The current US government shutdown, now in its fifth week, is becoming a serious concern, rivaling the longest shutdown in history from late 2018 which was estimated to have cost the US economy over $11 billion. This uncertainty is being offset by a firm US Dollar, which is supported by 10-year Treasury yields holding above 4%. As long as yields and the dollar remain strong, it will be difficult for silver to sustain a major rally.
Given that the fundamental drivers are pulling in opposite directions, we anticipate a period of increased volatility. The reduction in US-China trade tensions removes one pillar of support, making the market more sensitive to domestic news from Washington. This makes strategies like straddles or strangles appealing, as they can profit from a large price move in either direction without needing to predict it correctly.
