Insights 
VT 
Markets remain subdued due to the absence of major US data releases amidst the government shutdown. The September labour report’s delay keeps traders focused on the labour market’s resilience and inflation trends to gauge the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming decisions.
The minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting may not influence the dollar. Although some FOMC members, like Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, express caution about further interest rate cuts, opinions within the committee can shift. The market’s future hinges on how inflation and the labour market perform.
Impact of Delayed Labour Report
The delayed labour report and ongoing shutdown imply that reacting to past FOMC statements in the minutes is futile. Considering the labour reports might be skewed by delayed data and government employee layoffs, they are more essential for the dollar than the FOMC minutes. Ultimately, current and future economic conditions, particularly inflation and employment, are more pertinent for the Fed’s strategy.
With the latest September 2025 inflation report showing a stubborn Consumer Price Index at 3.1%, we find ourselves in a holding pattern. Markets are subdued as we await clearer signals on the economy’s direction, particularly from the labor market. This uncertainty makes it difficult to commit to major directional trades in the coming weeks.
The situation is complicated by the recent nationwide transport strike, which is expected to heavily distort the upcoming October jobs data. We saw a similar effect on market clarity during the US government shutdown in 2013, when delayed and skewed data led to weeks of confusion. Therefore, we should be prepared for a Non-Farm Payrolls report that may not reflect the true underlying strength of the economy.
Strategies for Derivative Traders
For derivative traders, this environment suggests that buying volatility could be a sensible approach. We could consider using straddles or strangles on major indices or currency pairs to position for a significant price move once the noisy data is finally released and digested. This allows us to profit from the reaction without betting on the specific direction of the break.
In this data vacuum, we should place less emphasis on commentary from individual Fed members or the minutes from their last meeting. As we learned from past events, official statements become less relevant when the core data they rely on is unavailable or unreliable. What will ultimately move the dollar and other assets is the future performance of the labor market and inflation, not old news.
