West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil has stabilised above $60 per barrel, bolstered by reduced supply concerns following the resumption of Russia’s Novorossiysk hub operations. The WTI price is up by approximately 0.50% after recovering from an intraday low around $59.22. The geopolitical risk premium has eased, although caution remains due to ongoing Black Sea strikes on energy infrastructure.

Traders remain vigilant for upcoming US economic data, postponed due to the government shutdown, to assess the American economy’s health. As one of the largest Oil consumers globally, the US can influence Crude prices based on its growth and fuel demand.

Forecasts and Technical Analysis

Forecasts by major energy agencies predict oversupply issues, with global oil supply growth likely to exceed demand through 2026. Technically, WTI faces resistance between $61-$61.50, with crucial support at $59.22 and $58.12. A sustained close above the resistance could reduce bearish pressure, but further hurdles remain near $62.89.

WTI Oil is a high-quality, light, and sweet Crude sourced from the US, serving as a market benchmark. Supply and demand dynamics, political instability, and the value of the US Dollar are key price drivers. Weekly inventory data from the API and EIA significantly influences WTI prices, with lower inventories typically pushing prices higher. OPEC’s production decisions also affect WTI pricing, tightening or easing supply in the market.

With WTI oil hovering just above $60, we see the market caught between short-term supply relief and a broader oversupply narrative. The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the EIA, released on November 12, 2025, supports this caution, projecting a global supply surplus expanding to 1.2 million barrels per day in early 2026. This fundamental pressure suggests any price strength will likely be temporary.

Given this context, derivative traders should consider the $61.00-$61.50 range as a key area to initiate bearish positions. The disappointing US jobs report for October, which was delayed but finally released last Friday showing a gain of only 95,000 jobs, points to a slowing economy and weaker fuel demand ahead. We saw a similar dynamic in late 2023 when recession fears capped oil rallies despite production cuts.

Short and Long Term Market Outlook

A decisive break below the immediate support at $59.22 should be viewed as a confirmation to add to short positions or buy put options. The primary downside targets in the coming weeks would then become last week’s low of $58.12, followed by the October low around $57.31. The oversupply trend makes these levels highly attainable if economic data continues to soften.

For a bullish case to be considered, we would need to see a sustained close above the $61.50 resistance level, which has held firm multiple times since late October. Historically, we’ve seen geopolitical risk premiums, like those from the Black Sea strikes, fade quickly unless there is a major, prolonged outage. Therefore, buying into these rallies has proven to be a risky strategy without a fundamental shift in the supply-demand balance.

This week’s inventory reports from the API and EIA are the next major catalyst to watch. After last week’s EIA report on November 13th showed a surprise inventory build of 2.5 million barrels, another increase would likely provide the momentum to break current support. A significant build would confirm weakening demand and reinforce the bearish outlook for the weeks ahead.

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