Insights 
VT 
Market Outlook
US and China reached a framework agreement on tariffs and major issues over the weekend. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points this month.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is one of the oldest stock market indices and consists of 30 prominent companies. It is a price-weighted index, unlike broader indices like the S&P 500.
Factors impacting the Dow Jones include company performance in earnings reports and macroeconomic data. Interest rates and inflation also play a role in influencing the index.
Dow Theory involves analysing the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average trends. Trading the DJIA can be done through ETFs, futures contracts, and mutual funds.
Investment Strategies
Given the market’s rally to new highs, we see a “buy the rumor” scenario playing out ahead of the US-China trade meeting and the Fed decision. We remember the volatility during the 2018-2020 trade disputes, where positive headlines often led to sharp, but temporary, gains that could quickly reverse on any hint of disappointment. Derivative traders should therefore be wary of overly optimistic positioning, as much of the good news appears to be priced in.
The Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut is the market’s primary support, with a 97% probability baked in. This dovish stance is justified by recent data showing a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2% last month, giving the Fed cover to stimulate the economy even as core inflation has cooled to a manageable 2.5%. For traders, this makes owning call options attractive, but the high level of certainty means premiums on near-term strikes are already expensive.
