Insights 
VT 
Gold is experiencing a mild recovery after a four-day losing streak, finding some support at $3,900. However, it lacks bullish momentum and struggles to surpass the $4,000 level, maintaining a bearish trend.
Traders are assessing the impact of the Sino-US trade deal, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments, questioning a December rate cut, have increased US Treasury yields. Technical indicators show gold seeking direction below $4,000, with the RSI below 50 and weak upside momentum from the MACD.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The bearish trend persists, with support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around $3,920. If this fails, the next target is near $3,820, with a possible retracement target at $3,795. Bulls need to break above $4,030 for a stronger recovery, shifting focus to the October 23 highs at $4,150 and a support area near $4,220.
Silver remains highly traded, valued as a store of value and medium of exchange. Its prices are influenced by geopolitical instability, industrial demand, and the US Dollar. In the broader market, news of a US-China trade truce keeps market sentiment cautious, affecting both gold and silver prices.
Given gold’s recent failure to hold the $4,000 level, derivative traders should remain cautious. The market is digesting Federal Reserve comments that make a December rate cut less likely, a view reinforced by the September CPI report on October 15, 2025, which showed inflation remaining sticky at 3.8%. This environment suggests considering put options or shorting futures if gold breaks below the critical $3,920 support area.
The bearish case is strengthened by rising bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury note recently touching 4.95%, a high we have not seen sustained since the market volatility of 2023. This increases the cost of holding gold and points toward further downside targets near the October low of $3,820 and potentially the measured target of $3,795. A break of these levels would confirm that the current mild recovery is merely a short-term bounce.
Bullish Scenario and Silver Position
For a bullish position, we would need to see a decisive move above the $4,030 resistance level, which has capped recent attempts at a rally. Such a move would likely require a significant catalyst, like an unexpected breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations, which have been stagnant since the Geneva talks earlier this month. Traders looking for an upside might consider buying call options with strike prices above $4,030, targeting a move toward $4,150.
We are also watching silver, which is caught between gold’s price action and its own strong industrial demand fundamentals. The Department of Energy’s Q3 2025 report confirmed a 15% year-over-year increase in solar panel installations, a key consumer of silver. However, silver will find it difficult to mount a significant rally if gold continues its downward trend.
The current market is defined by a tug-of-war between a hawkish Federal Reserve and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. This suggests that volatility could increase in the coming weeks, especially ahead of the next inflation data release. Strategies that profit from sharp price swings, such as long straddles, could be effective for traders who are uncertain of the market’s next direction.
