Insights 
VT 
The USD has declined following lower PPI data and increased initial and continuing claims. This represents a departure from the usual employment trend. Continuing claims have broken higher, while initial claims are approaching a peak within their range since 2022.
Weaker PPI and CPI figures might lead to a positive PCE outcome. Estimates for PCE are expected later today, as data analysts incorporate them into their projections.
Currency Pair Analysis
Regarding currency pairs, EURUSD reached new highs since 2021, aiming for 1.1683–1.16916, with current support at 1.15726. Buyers have the upper hand. USDJPY fell below its 100 and 200 MA on the 4-hour chart, with primary support between 142.10 and 142.347.
GBPUSD achieved a new high for the year, aiming for a swing area from 2022 at 1.36445. Beyond that, traders focus on the 50% midpoint from a 2014 high to a 2022 low at 1.37683. Today’s high is 1.3622. USDCHF edged closer to a swing low from April 2025, between 0.8097 and 0.81288, with the 2025 low at 0.80389 as the next target. Currently at 0.8119, its nearest risk is the swing area’s upper level at 0.81288.
That initial portion highlights how labour market softness, as reflected in both initial and continuing jobless claims, has begun to shift the narrative around US economic momentum. Typically, jobs data provide a reliable anchor, but with continuing claims breaking out to the upside and initial claims looming near a two-year range high, the suggestion is that hiring strength isn’t materialising as it had during previous dips in inflation. That implies a cooling consumer environment, one which we can reasonably expect to carry through into core inflation data in the coming weeks. Lower recent PPI and CPI readings support this view. Taken together with weaker job prints, that soft undercurrent puts more weight on the likelihood that PCE inflation—the Fed’s preferred gauge—will also glide lower.
Estimates ahead of the PCE release today are generally being revised down, swayed by the combination of tame pipeline inflation and reduced household income prospects. Many economic models are recalibrating their assumptions in real time, reflecting this pattern.
Interest Rate Expectations
As such, the US dollar’s slide isn’t simply technical—it reflects waning confidence in yield advantage. We’ve seen how the euro-dollar reacted, with spot levels now stretching above highs not touched since late 2021. Momentum is aligned with that direction and short-term structure supports further exploration of the 1.1683–1.1691 region. The stall point has been set below, and unless price falls back beneath the 1.1572 figure with acceleration, there’s little reason to argue the trend has topped out.
In the yen pair, the situation is more fragile. Price has crossed decisively under both the 100 and 200-period moving averages on the four-hour chart. That suggests pressure isn’t short-lived. What we’re tracking now is the cluster of support between 142.10 and 142.35—if those levels give way on volume, the next area of active interest would sit lower. The breaks below key averages leaves little ambiguity. Sellers have been dominant, and until the pair regains those lines, short-term bias should remain intact.
Meanwhile, sterling has extended its run, nudging into a region that proved difficult during past moves—the swing area cited from 2022. Price has brushed just below that band today, so that’s our focus in the sessions ahead. Move through cleanly, and attention naturally shifts to the 50% retracement from the 2014 high to the post-Brexit low—1.3768. It’s a technical magnet for medium-term buyers, and now with recent momentum, not out of reach.
In the case of the franc, price action has flirted around a support zone which previously turned buyers in April 2025. At the 0.8119 spot mark, the move is approaching the 0.8038 low again. Behaviour around here matters. A break and hold under that lowest print would mark new territory, targeting psychological and structural levels further down. Near-term risk is easy to define—maintaining above the upper band at 0.8128 would stabilise it, but slip through and sellers reassert.
Looking at everything together, interest rate expectations are subtly shifting. That shapes positioning. Expectations for a less aggressive Fed are already being baked into bond and currency prices. Short-term traders should keep one eye on key levels, the other on incoming inflation reads, and most of all stay responsive to price confirmation.
