Insights 
VT 
OKLO experienced an 800% rally in 2025, but recent developments indicate a reversal. Technical indicators such as RSI divergence and a breach of the 15-day EMA, alongside $100M in insider selling, suggest caution.
A break of the 50-day SMA could end the rally entirely, and investors should observe critical support levels. It’s vital to note that investments are risky, involving potential total loss and emotional distress.
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The massive 800% rally we saw in OKLO stock earlier in 2025 has clearly stalled, and the technical indicators are now flashing warnings. With the stock having broken its 15-day exponential moving average and showing significant RSI divergence, this is not a dip to be bought. For derivative traders, the current setup suggests positioning for a further decline, not a rebound.
We are watching the 50-day simple moving average, currently sitting near $10.50, as the critical support level. A decisive break below this would confirm the end of the uptrend, making put options with strike prices around $10 or lower attractive for November and December expirations. The more than $100 million in insider selling we saw confirmed in filings throughout September 2025 adds strong fundamental weight to this bearish technical picture.
Implied volatility in OKLO options is extremely high, with 30-day IV recently recorded at over 115%, which makes buying puts outright very expensive. We think a better approach is to use debit spreads, such as a bear put spread, to cap the cost of entry and define risk. This strategy allows traders to profit from a downward move while protecting against a potential volatility crush should the stock’s price action begin to stabilize.
Broader sector headwinds are also building, which supports a cautious stance on small modular reactor stocks like OKLO. Just last week, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) extended its timeline for the safety evaluation of several SMR designs, pushing potential approvals further into 2026. This, combined with Henry Hub natural gas prices that have fallen nearly 18% since their August highs, makes the economic case for new nuclear projects less compelling in the near term.
