Silver (XAG/USD) is stabilising after recovering from a three-day slump as market sentiment grows cautious. This shift comes amidst renewed global trade tensions and decreasing US Treasury yields, bolstering demand for precious metals.

Currently trading around $36.63, the metal eased from a day’s high of $36.85. Silver found support near $36.30, rebounding as new tariff threats from the US targeted countries like Algeria and the Philippines, with potential rates between 20% and 50% effective from August 1.

The Federal Reserve’s June Meeting Minutes suggest likely rate cuts later in the year, although inflationary risks from tariffs seem temporary. Technically, Silver trades within an ascending channel since April, fluctuating between $35.50 and $37.00 in recent weeks, with $37.30, a 13-year high, as a key barrier.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 58, indicating bullish momentum, while the Rate of Change (ROC) is near 1.76, reflecting moderate upside pressure. A move above $37.00 could drive the price to $38.00–$38.50, while initial support resides at $36.22, with further support at $35.50 and potentially $34.50 if bearish conditions prevail.

What this tells us is that silver prices, for now, are holding their ground after a short-lived pullback, although they’ve yet to break above recent highs. The price reacted positively to fresh trade tensions and a general softening in bond yields, both of which tend to support metals like silver that benefit when return-bearing instruments falter. A modest reduction in US Treasury yields lowers the opportunity cost of holding silver, which provides no yield but typically sees increased appeal when growth or rate expectations fall.

The discussion from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting pointed towards possible interest rate reductions before the year is out. There’s caution, though, as tariff-driven inflation could complicate the timing of those cuts. However, the Fed seems to view these inflation pressures as temporary disruptions rather than lasting obstacles. That’s worth remembering in the pricing of rate-sensitive instruments.

From a structure standpoint, we’ve watched silver remain well-behaved within its ascending channel since early April, marking a clear pattern of higher lows and measured resistance around that $37.00 region. RSI readings just below overbought levels suggest there’s still headroom for buyers, although not an open road. The Rate of Change metric around 1.76 tells us that price movement has upward energy, but it’s not racing ahead—it’s more of a steady climb.

So what does that tell us about positioning? For those managing directional risk, the key pivot still sits at $37.00. A sustainable move above that may not guarantee a sharp breakout, but it raises the odds of an approach toward $38.00 or even $38.50. On the other hand, if sellers manage to knock it below the $36.22 support, particularly on volume, the next marker comes in nearer to $35.50. Below that, the channel structure would likely break, which opens the door to a test at $34.50. Traders shouldn’t treat those figures as absolutes, but rather as zones that may trigger options flows or algorithmic activity, particularly around expiry dates or macro announcements.

Price action over the next few sessions could stay jumpy, especially with headlines swinging around tariffs or forward guidance from US officials. If those do persist, silver might remain bid as a perceived hedge. What we need to monitor closely now is the 13-year resistance mentioned earlier—at $37.30—which could attract long-term interest or profit-taking depending on how quickly it’s approached.

We’ll also be paying attention to implied volatility, which could creep up if these macro inputs become more erratic. Hedging strategies should be reviewed accordingly, particularly if one’s book holds short gamma. Keep an eye on rate expectations markets, especially swaps and futures. These are informing fixed-income proxies—and by extension, metals linked to inflation and policy distortion.

As ever, risk needs to stay dynamic. Open interest near the upper bounds of this range implies traders are active, but not yet convinced of a breakout nor a reversal. That indecision itself is telling. Any sudden shift in dollar strength or changes in bond auctions may upset the balance.

For now, upward movement remains intact but not aggressive. Any large directional bets must be justified by data follow-through or confirmed technical breakouts.