Insights 
VT 
WTI crude is trading near $61.20 after a decline driven by rising US stockpiles and potential developments in the US-Iran nuclear deal. WTI saw an over 3% drop earlier, stabilising at $60.00, unable to recover beyond the 21-day EMA.
Bearish supply-side fundamentals and resistance levels contribute to the downward trajectory. Renewed hopes for an easing of sanctions on Iran could see increased oil supply, influencing global supply concerns and pricing.
Us Inventory Reports
US inventory reports have furthered this downward pressure. The EIA recorded a 3.5 million-barrel stockpile increase, counter to a forecasted 1.1 million-barrel draw, with the API noting a 4.3 million-barrel rise.
OPEC has adjusted its 2025 supply growth forecast from US and non-OPEC producers to 800,000 bpd, down from 900,000. Despite this, OPEC’s gradual output rise impacts price sentiment.
Technically, WTI faces range limits between $55.50 and $64.00, with recent attempts to breach $64.00 unsuccessful. Immediate support rests at $60.00, with a potential downside extending to $52.00 if breached.
Rally Requirements
A rally requires reclaiming the 21-day EMA, potentially testing $64.00 again. Sustaining this could unlock further gains toward $66.80.
Currently, West Texas Intermediate crude floats close to $61.20 per barrel, marking a modest pause after a sharp drop earlier in the week. This decline, over 3% earlier on, was largely provoked by a pair of compounding factors: rising U.S. oil inventories and the prospects tied to restored diplomatic dealings between Washington and Tehran. Crude momentarily steadied at $60.00, but efforts to regain upward traction faltered below the 21-day exponential moving average, a commonly watched metric signalling short-term momentum.
The inventory figures alone have drawn a fresh wave of scepticism towards any immediate recovery. Expectations had pointed to a drawdown of around 1.1 million barrels, but instead, the Energy Information Administration logged a jump of 3.5 million barrels. Tuesday’s report from the American Petroleum Institute reinforced the same tension, with a more substantial 4.3 million-barrel increase. In a period where fuel demand is not yet running hot, excess supply—whether realised or anticipated—is a drag on pricing strength.
From a medium-term perspective, the suggestion of potential sanction relief on Iran could open the gates for additional oil to hit the global market. Though indirect and still speculative, that kind of shift tends to loom large in weighing on speculative positioning.
Meanwhile, fresh projections from OPEC placed non-OPEC and U.S. supply growth next year at 800,000 barrels per day, a notch lower than their prior forecast of 900,000. Still, OPEC’s readiness to raise output in increments, although measured, is likely factored into traders’ outlook. It adds weight to the existing bearish tone, especially where demand remains uneven across key consuming regions.
Price-wise, WTI continues to oscillate within a defined corridor, largely trapped between $55.50 at the lower end and $64.00 at the top. Most recently, bulls struggled to push above that upper barrier, reinforcing this month’s trading limits. Immediate support can still be found at $60.00, with sharper declines possible if that level collapses—markets may then begin eyeing $52.00 as the next anchor.
To challenge the downtrend, futures would need to vault back above the 21-day EMA convincingly. If that occurs, the door nudges open for another retest of $64.00. Passing that ceiling, we’d look closely at $66.80, which previously acted as a distributive area. However, any bounce would require either a tightening of supply forecasts or a decisive shift in macro risk tone.
The coming sessions should offer more clarity as we digest inventory data, monitor the trajectory of nuclear diplomacy, and assess refining margins heading into peak seasonal demand. As always, it helps to stay nimble and protect capital in either direction.
